基于ISM-AHP大型工程项目的风险评价研究

Research on Risk Evaluation of Large⁃scale Engineering Project Based on ISM⁃AHP

针对大型工程项目存在巨大风险损失的问题,基于文献研究法识别出大型工程项目的15个风险因素,从风险传导的角度,建立解释结构模型并分析风险因素间的传导关系;通过层次分析法对风险进行排序,找出造成风险损失的重要风险因素;最后以合肥轨道交通工程6号线项目为例,利用上述模型对各风险因素进行分析,得出各风险的类别以及造成项目风险损失的重要风险,从而通过有效的风险管理,切实减少大型工程项目的风险损失。

Aiming at the problem of huge risk loss in large-scale engineering projects,15 risk factors of large-scale engineering projects are identified based on the literature research method,and from the perspective of risk transmission,an ISM model is es‐tablished and the transmission relationship between risk factors is analyzed.Sort and find out the important risk factors that cause risk losses;finally,taking the Hefei Rail Transit Project Line 6 project as an example,using the above model to analyze each risk factor,get the types of risks and the important risks that cause project risk losses,so as to effectively reduce the risk loss of large-scale engineering projects through effective risk management.