家庭消费变动的同群效应:习惯形成还是参考点依赖?

Peer Effect on Household Consumption Changes:Habit Formation or Reference Point Dependence?

家庭或企业行为决策中的“同群效应”正为学术界所关注。文章基于2010-2014年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,运用固定效应模型验证了家庭消费决策中的“同群效应”。基本实证结果表明:(1)家庭的当期总体消费水平与周边社区其他家庭的当期消费水平正相关,但却与其他家庭滞后一期的消费水平负相关;(2)分为生存型消费、发展型消费与享受型消费后,家庭的三类消费支出同样表现出“同群效应”,其中生存型消费最为明显。机制分析发现,家庭消费的“同群效应”是一种因参考点框架产生的现象,而不能由理性预期的“习惯形成”解释。当家庭将同期社区的其他家庭消费水平作为参考点时,家庭并未考虑同期的消费追赶对未来预期消费效用的影响。进一步的异质性分析结果表明,在家庭与周边社群的社会关系越紧密或社会背景的同质性越高时,家庭消费的“同群效应”会越强。

Scholars have paid much attention on peer effect in family and firm behavior.Basing on the CFPS(China Family Panel Studies)tracking data from 2010-2014,we used the fixed effect model to verify the peer effect in household consumption.Basically,the empirical results show that:(1)the total household consumption is positively correlated with other households in the community for the same period,but negatively correlated for intertemporal period;(2)when dividing consumption expenditure into subsistence consumption,development consumption and enjoyment consumption,we find that the three types of household consumption also show the"peer effect",of which subsistence consumption has the strongest effect.The mechanism test shows that the above"peer effect"is a phenomenon produced by the frame of reference points,but not be explained by"habit formation".If the family treat the consumption levels of other households as reference point,they won’t consider the impact of consumption catch-up on the expected consumption utility.Furthermore,we also find that the closer the social relationship between the family and the surrounding communities or the higher the homogeneity of the social background,the stronger the"peer effect"of household consumption will be.