都市圈快轨客流预测思路及要点

Study on Key Points and Methods of Passenger Volume Forecast of Metropolitan Rapid Rail Transit

时速160~200 km的都市圈快轨客流预测目前还没有专门的规范标准,实际工作中存在预测思路未结合都市圈快轨技术特征、预测内容不够全面等问题。首先提出都市圈快轨客流预测“区域+城市”多层次一体化嵌套交通模型体系构建的总体思路,然后结合都市圈快轨的功能定位、技术特征以及服务需求,考虑下游运营组织等专业对客流预测成果的要求,提出都市圈快轨客流预测工作需要着重考虑的关键要点、处理方法以及客流预测新的内容要求。

There is no special normative standard for the passenger voulme forecast of metropolitan rapid rail transit at present,with practical problems such as the prediction ideas are not combined with the technical characteristics of the rapid rail,and the prediction content is not comprehensive enough.First,the general idea of passenger volume forecast and the method of constructing a multi-level integrated nested traffic model system of"region+city"are put forward in this paper.According to the functional positioning,technical characteristics and service requirements of the metropolitan rapid rail transit,and considering the requirements of downstream operating organizations and other majors for passenger forecast,the key points and approach that need to be considered in the passenger forecasting work and the new content requirements for passenger forecasting are put forward.