典型城市减污降碳协同控制潜力评价研究:以渭南市为例

Evaluation of Co-Controlling Air Pollutants and Carbon Emission Potential in Typical Cities:A Case Study in Weinan City

我国已将应对气候变化全面融入国家经济社会发展的总战略,采取积极措施,有效控制重点工业行业温室气体排放,开展减污降碳协同研究对于城市实现大气环境质量改善与低碳转型发展具有重要意义.本研究以国家大气污染防治重点区域--汾渭平原中渭南市为例,采用LMDI分解方法并运用LEAP模型,通过构建多种情景模拟分析污染减排、能源结构改善及产业结构调整等政策对渭南市未来能源消费、大气污染物减排潜力的影响,预测了该市碳达峰时间及峰值水平.结果表明,能源结构改善、产业结构优化、交通运输调整具有显著的污染物与温室气体协同减排效果,而压减落后产能、工业炉窑改造、工业污染物排放标准升级等传统环境治理的潜力逐渐减小.建议渭南市应积极推进产业结构优化升级、着力改善能源结构、加快推进交通运输结构优化,倒逼能源、产业、交通结构绿色低碳转型和生态环境质量协同改善,牵引经济社会发展全面绿色转型,实现减污降碳协同效应.

China has integrated climate change into the overall strategy of national economic and social development,taken active measures to effectively control greenhouse gas emissions from the key industrial sectors,and carried out collaborative study on pollution and carbon reduction,which is of great significance to urban atmospheric environmental quality improvement and low-carbon transformation development.This study takes Weinan City as a case,which is located in the Fenwei Plain,one of national key regions for air pollution prevention and control.The paper uses the LMDI decomposition method and LEAP model to analyze the impact of pollution reduction,energy structure improvement and industrial structure adjustment policies on future energy consumption and air pollutant reduction potential in Weinan City by building a variety of scenarios.The peak carbon time and peak carbon level are predicted.The results show that the improvement of energy structure,the optimization of industrial structure,and the adjustment of transportation have significant effect on synergistic emission reduction of pollutants and greenhouse gases.However,the potential of traditional environmental governance policies is diminishing,such as reducing backward production capacity,transforming industrial furnaces,and upgrading of industrial pollutant emission standards.The research shows that it is necessary to promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure,focus on improving the energy structure,accelerate the optimization of the transportation structure,force the green and low-carbon transformation of energy and industry and transportation structure and the coordinated improvement of ecological environment quality,lead the overall green transformation of economic and social development,and achieve the synergy effect of reducing pollution and carbon.