水足迹视角下的太湖流域水资源利用评价

Evaluation of Water Resources Utilization in the Taihu Basin from the Perspective of Water Footprint

为全面了解太湖流域各城市在普遍已实施最严格水资源管理制度背景下的水资源利用现状,总结存在的问题,探索今后水资源可持续利用发展方向,基于水足迹视角,研究了太湖流域及流域内上海等8个城市2015-2019年水资源利用情况,结合LMDI(Lograrithmic Mean Divisia Index method)模型分析了人口数量、富裕程度、技术水平对水足迹变化的驱动效应,并构建水资源可持续利用评价指标体系进行了评价。结果显示太湖流域近5年总水足迹不断下降,工业、农业水足迹不断下降,生活水足迹不断上升,各城市中上海总水足迹最大,嘉兴最小。技术水平因素对水足迹变化影响最大,人口数量因素影响最小。富裕程度与人口数量呈正向驱动,技术水平呈反向驱动。太湖流域水足迹结构较为稳定,上海、苏州对外依赖度较高;水足迹效益整体不断提高,各效益指标城市间差异显著;水足迹生态安全形势不容乐观,但近三年呈不断向好态势。研究结果表明今后太湖流域各城市制定和调整水资源管理政策时应加大对节水技术、工艺和设备的科研投入,推动农业、工业用水的高效开发利用,加强生活用水定额管理,重视人口增长对水资源的压力,不断提高水资源利用率,实现区域水资源的可持续利用。

In order to fully understand the current situation of water resources utilization in the cities in the Taihu Basin under the background of the most stringent water resources management system,this paper summarizes the existing problems,and explores the future development direction of sustainable water resources.Based on the perspective of water footprint,it studies the utilization of water resources in the Taihu Basin and eight cities including Shanghai in the basin from 2015 to 2019,combined with the LMDI(Lograrithmic Mean Divisia Index method)model to analyze the driving effect of population,wealth,and technical level on the changing in water footprint,and build an evaluation index system for the sustainable use of water resources.The results show that the total water footprint of the Taihu Basin has been declining in the past five years,the industrial and agricultural water footprints have been declining,and the domestic water footprint has been rising.Among the cities,Shanghai has the largest total water footprint and Jiaxing has the smallest.Technical level factors have the greatest impact on water footprint change,and population factors have the least impact.The degree of affluence and population are positively driven,and the technical level is negatively driven.The water footprint structure of the Taihu Basin is relatively stable,Shanghai and Suzhou are highly dependent on external water resources.The overall water footprint benefit continues to increase,with significant differences among cities in each indicator;the ecological security situation of the water footprint is not optimistic,but it has shown a continuous improvement in the past three years.The research results indicate that in the future,cities in the Taihu Basin should increase investment in water-saving technologies,techniques and equipment when formulating and adjusting water resources management policies,promote the efficient development and utilization of agricultural and industrial water,strengthen the management of domestic water quotas,and pay attention to the pressure of population growth on water resources,continuously improve the utilization rate of water resources,and realize the sustainable use of regional water resources.