我国生猪保供稳价的战略思考

Strategic Thinking on Securing Supply and Stabilizing Prices in China’s Hog Market

猪肉是城乡居民不可或缺的重要“菜篮子”产品,科学把握生猪保供稳价形势、推动生猪市场平稳有序发展具有重要现实意义。当前,生猪供给保障能力稳步回升,猪肉进口出现回落但仍处相对高位,需求驱动逐步转向价差驱动成为新趋势;非洲猪瘟疫情推动猪肉消费出现阶段性下滑,城乡居民猪肉消费不均衡问题较为突出;生猪市场价格经历史上最强“硬着陆”,政策调控有待进一步调整优化。建议进一步完善政策调控体系,夯实猪肉供给保障基础;科学看待猪肉进口,巩固拓展国际供应链;强化消费政策工具,发挥保供稳价作用。

Pork is an important"food basket"products indispensable to China’s residents,it is of great practical significance to scientifically grasp the situation of hog supply and prices stability,and promote the stable and orderly development of hog market.At present,the supply security capacity of hog was steadily rebounding.Pork imports have fallen but are still at a relatively high level,with demand-driven gradually shifting to price spread-driven as the new trend.The African swine fever epidemic has pushed pork consumption to a stage of decline,and the unbalanced consumption of pork by urban and rural residents was more prominent.Hog market prices experienced the strongest"hard landing"in history,and its policy regulation needs to be further adjusted and optimized.It is recommended to further improve the policy control system to solidify the basis of pork supply;scientific view of pork imports,consolidate and expand the international supply chain;strengthen the consumption policy tools to play a demand-side role in ensuring supply and stabilizing prices.