天然气基础设施与消费联动性及其应用研究

The Linkage between Natural Gas Infrastructure and Consumption and Its Applications

天然气的技术经济特点内在决定了其基础设施与消费具有联动性,天然气基础设施与消费联动性表现为规模经济和资源配置自由度提高两个效应。更为重要的是:天然气基础设施与消费联动性会使得天然气发展呈现出两个差异很大的可能状态,即低水平下的联动压抑发展和高水平下的联动促进发展。中国30多年的天然气发展历史验证了天然气基础设施与消费联动性的存在。基于天然气基础设施与消费联动性,可以判断:中国天然气未来发展势头会较为强劲,世界天然气价格的一体化机制则会得到深化。基于此,从中央政府、地方政府和企业三个层面,提出促进中国天然气消费与基础设施建设协调发展等建议,以更好地适应世界天然气格局的变动。

The technical and economic characteristics of natural gas inherently determine the linkage between its infrastructure and consumption.The linkage between natural gas infrastructure and consumption shows two effects:economies of scale and the improvement of resource allocation freedom.More importantly,the linkage between natural gas infrastructure and consumption will make natural gas development present two possible states with great differences.China’s natural gas development history of more than 30 years has verified the existence of linkage between natural gas infrastructure and consumption.Based on the linkage between natural gas infrastructure and consumption,it can be judged that China’s natural gas will have a strong development momentum in the future.The reduction or even interruption of Russian natural gas imports by many European countries due to the Russia Ukraine war will seriously damage the future natural gas development of these countries,and the integration mechanism of world natural gas prices will be deepened.