物流效率、电商发展对农产品价格的影响机制研究——基于动态系统矩估计与门槛模型的分析

Research on the influence mechanism of logistics efficiency and e-commerce development on price volatility of agricultural products——Based on dynamic system moment estimation and threshold model analysis

后疫情时代,农产品价格波动问题备受关注。以物流运输、电商系统为核心的商贸流通环节,是影响农产品价格波动的重要因素。在此背景下,本文基于2013-2019年省际面板数据,利用系统GMM和门槛效应模型分析物流效率、电商发展对农产品价格波动的影响机制。结果表明:(1)物流效率的提高通过降低流通环节的制度性成本、物流成本和交易成本,对农产品价格波动起到抑制效应;(2)电商发展缓解了农产品交易信息不对称现象,对农产品价格波动起到明显的调节作用;(3)当物流效率、电商发展水平互为门槛,且门槛值分别达到1.073、0.112时,电商发展水平、物流效率对农产品价格波动的抑制效应显著增强,即存在典型的非线性特征。因此,在商贸流通环节提高物流效率、建立农产品信息监测平台、促进电商发展成为缓解农产品价格波动的可行路径。

In the post-epidemic era,food security and price volatility of agricultural products are of great concern.As the core of trade circulation chain,The transportation and e-commerce system plays an important role on affecting the price fluctuation of agricultural products.In this context,based on inter-provincial panel data from 2013-2019,this paper uses systematic GMM and threshold effect models to explain the influence mechanisms of logistics efficiency and e-commerce development on the agricultural price volatility.The results show that(1)the improvement of logistics efficiency has a dampening effect on the price volatility of agricultural products by reducing the institutional costs,logistics costs and transaction costs in the distribution chain.(2)The development of e-commerce alleviates the asymmetry of information on agricultural products transactions and plays a significant role in regulating the price volatility of agricultural products.(3)When logistics efficiency and e-commerce development level are mutual thresholds,and the threshold values reach 1.073 and 0.112 respectively,the inhibitory effect of e-commerce development level and logistics efficiency on price fluctuations of agricultural products is enhanced,i.e.,there is a typical non-linear characteristic.Therefore,this paper provides certain methods in improving logistics efficiency in trade circulation,establishing agricultural products information monitoring platform and promoting e-commerce development become feasible paths to alleviate price fluctuations of agricultural products.