我国居民消费潜力测度及其影响因素研究——基于对上海、天津等11个省市数据的实证分析

Research on the Measurement of Residents’Consumption Potential and its Influencing Factors——Based on the Empirical Analysis of Data From 11 Provinces and Cities Including Shanghai and Tianjin

新发展格局下,消费是畅通国内大循环的关键环节和重要引擎。消费潜力作为衡量内需的重要因素,在引领产业转型升级、带动经济持续稳定增长意义重大。本文从居民消费基础、居民消费能力和居民消费环境三个维度,构建居民消费潜力测度指标体系,运用基于漂移度的组合测度模型度量我国沿海11省市消费潜力综合指数,进一步分析消费潜力的时空演变和影响指标。结果显示:研究期内沿海居民消费潜力呈上升态势。其中,上海属于第一梯队,天津、浙江、广东和江苏是第二梯队,辽宁、山东和福建为第三梯队,海南、河北和广西则为第四梯队;沿海整体消费潜力的主要影响因素是消费环境;不同梯队省市消费潜力的关键影响因素具有差异性。研究提出:要扩大消费市场规模,优化消费结构,提高消费能力;从各省市薄弱环节的个性特征出发,释放居民消费潜力。

Under the new development pattern,consumption is the key link and important engine to smooth the domestic circulation.As an important factor to measure domestic demand,consumption potential is significant in leading industrial transformation and upgrading and driving sustained and stable economic growth.This paper constructs a system of indicators to measure consumption potential of residents in three dimensions:consumption base,consumption ability and consumption environment,and uses a combined measurement model based on drift degree to measure the comprehensive index of consumption potential of 11 coastal provinces and cities in China,and further analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution and impact indicators of consumption potential.The results show that the consumption potential of coastal residents is on the rise during the study period.Among them,Shanghai belongs to the first echelon,Tianjin,Zhejiang,Guangdong and Jiangsu are the second echelon,Liaoning,Shandong and Fujian are the third echelon,and Hainan,Hebei and Guangxi are the fourth echelon;the main influencing factor of the overall consumption potential along the coast is the consumption environment;the key influencing factors of consumption potential in different echelons of provinces and cities have variability.The study proposes:to expand the scale of the consumption market,optimize the consumption structure and improve the consumption capacity;to release the consumption potential of residents from the individual characteristics of the weakness of each province and city.