跨境资本流动的产业链效应及对我国产业结构的影响研究——基于2000-2020年FDI数据

Research on the Industry Chain Effect of Cross-border Capital Flow and the Impact of China’s Industrial Structure——Based on FDI data from 2000 to 2020

跨境资本流动对全球资源配置具有持续影响,在促进全球产业链分工细化和提高产出效率的同时,也影响流入国家的产业结构。本文解析了跨境资本流动对全球产业链分工影响的理论逻辑,分析了跨境资本流入对我国产业结构的影响,运用2000年至2020年FDI数据进行实证检验。研究结论显示,长期跨境资本流入显著促进了我国第二、第三产业的发展,对第三产业发展的影响作用逐渐突出;长期跨境资本流入使国内产业融入国际产业链分工加深,促进了国内关联产业的产出规模,也加大了对全球产业链的依存度;居于全球产业链中的组装加工类企业,对产业链前端核心技术的依赖度高,容易受到产业链上游的钳制;跨境资本流动规模的区域分布不均衡加剧了“东高西低”的特征。因此,在利用跨境资本促进国内经济总量扩大和增加劳动力就业的同时,也要防止全球产业链低端行业在国内的固化,以及所伴生的产业结构偏失。

Cross-border capital flows have a lasting impact on global resource allocation. They not only promote the division of labor and improve output efficiency of the global industrial chain, but also affect the industrial structure of the recipient countries. This paper analyzes the theoretical logic of the impact of cross-border capital flows on the division of labor in the global industrial chain, analyzes the impact of cross-border capital inflows on China’s industrial structure, and makes an empirical test by using FDI data from 2000 to 2020. The results show that the long-term cross-border capital inflow has significantly promoted the development of China’s secondary and tertiary industries, and has a gradually prominent impact on the development of the tertiary industry. Long-term cross-border capital inflow deepens the division of labor of domestic industries into the international industrial chain, promotes the output scale of domestic related industries, and increases the dependence on the global industrial chain. The assembly and processing enterprises in the global industrial chain are highly dependent on the core technology at the front of the industrial chain, and are easily restrained by the upstream of the industrial chain. The uneven regional distribution of cross-border capital flows intensifies the characteristic of "high in the east and low in the west". Therefore, while using cross-border capital to promote the expansion of domestic economic aggregate and increase labor employment, it is also necessary to prevent the solidification of low-end industries of the global industrial chain in China and the accompanying deviation of industrial structure.