经济波动与收入年末效应:特征及路径

Economic Fluctuations and Year-End Income Effects:Characteristics and Paths

为实现财政收入目标,经济下行时期的地方政府容易在年末组织收入,这将直接改变年度收入结构。本文基于中国地市级季度财政收入数据,实证分析了经济波动对地方年度收入结构的影响。研究发现,随着经济下行波动,地方政府第四季度财政收入占比显著提高,其中11月份尤为突出。异质性分析表明,这一现象在欠发达地区更明显,且主要形成于实际经济增长不及预期的经济下行时期。进一步的机制分析发现,地方政府倾向于通过强征管及空转等方式完成收入任务,企业所得税是加强征管的重要税种。因此,有必要重新审视地方政府的税收征管行为,在经济下行波动或减税降费背景下,为促进积极财政政策提质增效,地方财政收入目标和支出计划应做出及时且合理的调整,以减轻政府收入组织压力和企业非预期负担。

To meet fiscal revenue targets during a downturn,local governments tend to organize revenue at the end of the year,which will directly change the annual revenue structure.Domestic research has not yet paid attention to this problem.Based on the quarterly fiscal revenue data of prefecture-level cities in China,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of economic fluctuations on local income structure.The study finds that in an economic downturn,the proportion of fiscal revenue of local governments increased significantly in the fourth quarter,especially in November.Heterogeneity analysis shows that this phenomenon is more obvious in less developed areas.Through further mechanism analysis,it is found that local governments tend to meet their revenue targets by tightening tax collection and administration and by means of accounting schemes that seek to boost revenue only on paper,among which,the former mainly targets corporate income tax.This phenomenon also causes pro-cyclical fiscal revenue,increases the tax burden of enterprises,and reduces corporate profits.The conclusion is helpful to re-examine the tax collection and administration behavior of local governments.In order to improve the quality and efficiency of the positive fiscal policy,the revenue target and expenditure plan of local governments should be adjusted in a reasonable and timely manner to reduce the pressure on local revenue organization and the unexpected burden on enterprises.