劳动力成本上升是否引致了企业所得税实际税率的变动

Does the Rise in Labor Cost Induce the Change in Effective Corporate Income Tax Rate?

税收归宿理论认为企业所得税的征收会部分转嫁给劳动力而影响工资水平,本文通过构建两地区一般均衡模型发现,一个地区劳动力成本的上升反过来会引致本地区企业所得税实际税率的降低,同时也会对另一地区的企业所得税实际税率产生影响。为了检验该结论在中国地区层面是否成立,本文以《最低工资规定》在2004年的实施为准自然实验,实证研究了《最低工资规定》实施带来的地级市层面劳动力成本冲击对地区内以及相邻地区企业所得税实际税率的影响。实证研究表明,《最低工资规定》实施带来的劳动力成本上升确实引致了本地区企业所得税实际税率的降低,在经过一系列稳健性检验后,这一结果依然成立,而且同一省份内其他地区的劳动力成本受到的冲击也会导致本地区的企业所得税实际税率下降。本文的研究结论为劳动力成本日益上升背景下如何规范中国地方政府的税收行为提供了理论参考。

The tax incidence theory believes that corporate income tax will be partially passed on to labor and affect wage levels.This paper constructs a two-region general equilibrium model and finds that the increase in labor cost in a region will in turn lead to a reduction in the corporate income tax rate in that region,and also has an impact on the corporate income tax rate in other regions.In order to test whether this conclusion is valid in China,this paper uses the implementation of the“Minimum Wage Regulations”in 2004 as a quasi-natural experiment to empirically study the impact of a region’s labor cost shock on its effective corporate income tax rate and that in adjacent regions.Empirical study shows that the increase in labor cost brought about by the implementation of the“Minimum Wage Regulations”had indeed led to a lower corporate income tax rate in the region.This conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests.Moreover,the shock on labor cost in other regions of the same province will also cause the effective corporate income tax rate in the region to decrease.The research conclusions provide a theoretical reference for how to regulate the taxation behavior of China’s local governments against the background of rising labor cost.