美西方制裁对俄罗斯经济的影响及启示

The Impact of US-Led Western Sanctions on Russia’s Economy and Enlightenment

2022年2月乌克兰危机升级对地缘政治、大国关系、世界经济、国际市场、全球治理及相关国家本身产生了多方面的影响,搅动国际关系和世界经济格局加速演变。此次危机对俄罗斯经济的影响除每天3亿多美元的直接军事成本外,主要通过金融制裁、贸易限制、阻断物流链等措施实现。制裁已成为美国及其盟友遏制孤立俄罗斯的重要工具和长期政策选择,从而也成为影响俄罗斯经济发展的经常性变量。制裁对俄经济造成严重冲击,短期内将使其经济出现深度下降,长期内将打击其创新能力和发展潜力,俄国际形象和影响力的损失在短期内难以弥补,无论硬实力和软实力都将陷入新的低谷。西方与俄罗斯在金融、科技、贸易方面的强行“脱钩”将促使俄转变经济运行和发展模式,重构对外经济关系,其转型的效果如何将成为未来研究的重要课题。更值得关注的是,西方各国对乌克兰危机的反应和干预对维护遵守既有国际秩序和规则提出严峻挑战,促使各国不得不进一步严肃思考如储备资产、跨境结算、稳定供应链等关系国家安全的问题。

An essential tool and a long-term policy choice adopted theto contain and isolate Russia,sanctions has become a regular US and its allies to contain and isolate Russia,sanctions has become a regularfactor to Russia’s economic development.Russia’s economy is expected to sufferd eep recession in the short run while the ability of the country’s innovation and thepotential for development will be impaired in the long run.It is difficult for Russiat o restore its international image and reverse the decline of its influence.As theWest decoupled its finance,science and technology,Russia is forced both toc hange its model of economic operation and development and to restructure itsforeign economic relations.It is noteworthy that the reaction and intervention ofW estern countries pose a threat to the existing international order and rules.Hencethe countries have to deal with problems relevant to national security such asr eserve assets,cross-border settlements,and the stabilization of supply chains.