欧亚地缘政治变局下全球和中国粮食安全形势

Food Security of China and the World under Geopolitical Changes in Eurasia

俄罗斯和乌克兰是重要的小麦、大麦、玉米和油料的生产国和出口国,俄罗斯还是化肥主要提供国。乌克兰危机升级主要从供给侧影响全球粮食市场,如春播面积下降、出口限制或禁令、港口关闭、制裁运输船队和化肥出口受限等,导致粮食供应短缺加剧、价格快速上涨,甚至可能在非洲国家引发大规模人道主义危机。乌克兰危机对中国粮食安全的影响主要表现在黑海贸易通道不畅,葵花籽油、小麦、大麦、玉米进口受阻,钾肥、油料进口成本压力增大以及中国与欧亚经济联盟农业经贸合作受到干扰。为保障中国粮食安全,应着力增加粮食特别是大豆和油料的产量、推动粮食进口多元化、提高化肥使用效率、加强国际沟通和南南合作。

The global food markets are impacted by the Ukraine crisis conflict from the supply side.China’s food securityis impacted by the hindered transit of the Black Sea trade corridor that disruptedt he importation of sunflower seed oil,wheat,barley,and maize,by the rise in thecosts of potash fertilizer and oil plants,and by the disrupted agriculturalc ooperation between China and EEU countries.It is advisable to increase theproduction of soybean and oil plants,diversify food imports,enhance the efficiency of fertilizers,and consolidate international communication and South-South cooperation.