双边贸易、产品关联与中国产品内分工升级

Bilateral Trade,Product Relatedness and the Upgrading ofthe Intra-product Specialization of China

文章基于产品空间视角,结合2001—2019年中国与130多个国家(地区)HS(1996)六分位双边贸易数据,创新引入区分出口目的地和进口来源地密度指标,考察中国与伙伴国(地区)双边产品内分工格局及产品空间结构关系,并采用两步系统GMM法实证检验出口关联、进口关联对双边产品内分工深化和升级的影响。研究表明:①虽然2008年金融危机后全球价值链分工发展趋缓,但中国与各伙伴国间的产品内分工程度、产品空间关系仍呈上升趋势,其中“一带一路”沿线国家表现突出;②无论是对总产品内分工还是高端型产品内分工水平,出口关联发挥了积极促进作用,但进口关联不利于双边产品内分工深化与升级,稳健性检验也得到一致结论;③出口关联、进口关联的作用机制迥然不同,作用效应在2008年金融危机前后以及伴随伙伴国收入水平、贸易关系的不同存在差异性,其中“一带一路”沿线国家的出口关联与进口关联更为有效地促进了中国产品内分工深化与升级。

Based on product space framework and HS(1996)6-digit trade data between China and more than 130 trading partners from 2001 to 2019,this paper uses density index by distinguishing China's export destination and import origin to measure the bilateral intra-product specialization pattern and product spatial structure.By the means of two-step system GMM method,it empirically tests the impact of export relatedness and import relatedness on the deepening and upgrading of bilateral intra-product specialization.The result shows that:1)Although the development of the global value chain has slowed down after the financial crisis in 2008,the degree of bilateral intra-product specialization and product space network between China and its partners are still growing up,especially for countries along the Belt and Road.2)The export relatedness has played a positive role in general and even high-level intra-product specialization.However,the import relatedness is not conducive to the deepening and upgrading of the bilateral intra-product specialization.The robustness tests confirm these findings.3)The mechanism of export relatedness and import relatedness is heterogeneous,and their effects are also different because of the 2008 global financial crisis,the income level of partner countries and the trade relationship.Particularly,the bilateral export relatedness and the import relatedness with countries along the Belt and Road promote more effectively in deepening and upgrading of China's intra-product specialization.