“黑天鹅”与“灰犀牛”理论驱动的航运安全事件战略应对方法体系

A System of strategic response methods for shipping safety incidents driven by“Black Swan”and“Grey Rhino”theories

“黑天鹅”与“灰犀牛”理论作为风险研究的新理论与方法,对重大风险防范具有明显优势。目前航运安全事件针对单一事故类型开展,缺乏对航运安全事件的本质属性挖掘,亟须建立面向多种安全事件类型、事件链耦合机理、事故致因—事故认知—事故后果—风险防范的一体化理论框架与技术体系。笔者首次将“黑天鹅”与“灰犀牛”理论拓展到航运安全事件本质挖掘与航运系统稳健性研究中,以近年来发生的重特大航运安全事件为典型案例,探究“黑天鹅”与“灰犀牛”安全事件的本质区别,以及“黑天鹅”与“灰犀牛”耦合发展及演变,提出“黑天鹅”风险认知à承灾体分析à风险后果评估à风险防控à安全决策、“灰犀牛”风险识别à风险概率预测à承灾体分析à风险后果评估à风险防控à安全决策的航运安全突发事件监管与应对的基础理论与方法体系,对于航运安全事故复杂多样的致因链、灾害链、事故链,形成事故安全监管策略与防范措施,能够有效提升航运安全风险防控和防范化解能力,保障人民群众生命财产安全。

The“Black Swan”and“Grey Rhino”theories,as new theories and methods of risk research,have obvious advantages in preventing major risks.At present,shipping safety incidents are carried out for a single accident type,and there is a lack of mining of the essential attributes of shipping safety incidents.The theoretical framework and technical system of chemistry.It is urgent to establish an integrated theoretical framework and technical system for various safety event types,event chain coupling mechanism,accident cause-accident cognition-accident consequences-risk prevention.For the first time,this paper expands the theories of“Black Swan”and“Grey Rhinoceros”into the research on the nature of shipping safety incidents and the robustness of shipping systems.Taking the major shipping safety incidents in recent years as typical cases,this paper explores the essential difference between“Black Swan”and“Grey Rhino”safety incidents,as well as the coupled development and evolution of“Black Swan”and“Grey Rhino”,and proposes basic theory and method system for supervision and response to shipping safety emergencies including“Black Swan”risk cognition,hazard-bearing body analysis,risk consequence assessment,risk prevention and control,safety decision-making,“Grey Rhino”risk identification,risk probability prediction,hazard-bearing body analysis,risk consequence assessment,risk prevention and control,safety decision-making.The system can form accident safety supervision strategies and preventive measures for the complex and diverse causal chains,disaster chains,and accident chains of shipping safety accidents,which can effectively improve the ability of shipping safety risk prevention,prevention and resolution,and ensure the safety of people’s lives and properties.