“双循环”新发展格局下中国制造业的增长动力

The Growth Momentum of China’s Manufacturing Industry under the New Development Pattern of Dual Circulation

“双循环”新发展格局下,本文将价值链和创新链纳入统一分析框架梳理中国制造业提质增效的内在逻辑,并剖析全要素生产率(TFP)的演进规律及变动成因。结果显示,中国制造业TFP高水平增长的主要贡献来自于大幅的前沿技术进步和小幅的配置效率改善,TFP增长受益于新兴贸易圈提供的中间品价格波动优势、外资经济的知识技术溢出以及全球链式创新的交互协同。TFP增长结构显示,国内方面,国内价值链仅推动前沿技术进步,而国内创新链既能推动前沿技术进步又能助力技术效率改进;此外,国内创新链的交互协同还有助于规模效率改进。国际方面,全球价值链中两大贸易圈层中间品对前沿技术进步和配置效率改进具有异质性影响。全球创新链有助于技术效率和配置效率改进,其中,技术密集型行业TFP增长更依赖自主研发创新。上述研究结论为“双循环”新发展格局下溯源中国制造业增长动力和探寻高质量发展路径提供了经验参考。

Under the new development pattern of dual circulation,this paper examines the internal logic of improving the quality and efficiency of China’s manufacturing industry by incorporating the value chain and the innovation chain,and studies the evolution law and causes of China’s manufacturing’s total factor productivity(TFP).The results show that the high-level growth of China’s manufacturing’s TFP comes from the substantial frontier technology progress and the slight allocation efficiency improvement.TFP growth is mainly driven by the price fluctuations of intermediate products from the emerging trade circle,foreign capital economy and interactive collaboration of global chain innovation.The reasons for changes in TFP growth structure are as follows.First,domestically,the domestic value chain only promotes frontier technology progress,the domestic innovation chain can not only promote frontier technology progress but also contribute to technical efficiency improvement.The interaction of the domestic innovation chain also contributes to scale efficiency improvement.Second,internationally,the intermediate products from the two major circles in the global value chain have a heterogeneous impact on frontier technology progress and allocation efficiency improvement.The global innovation chain only contributes to technical efficiency improvement and allocation efficiency improvement.In addition,technology-intensive manufacturing industries rely more on independent R&D and innovation.The conclusions provide an empirical reference for tracing the growth momentum and exploring the high-quality development paths for China’s manufacturing industry under dual circulation.