《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》成员国炼油与成品油市场现状及展望

Status quo and prospects of refining and refined oil markets in the RCEP countries

2022年1月1日,《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)正式生效。RCEP区域炼油工业发展不平衡,新加坡、韩国和日本炼油工业较发达,其他国家炼油工业欠发展,炼厂规模不大,炼油设施有待改善。长期看,东盟多国都有炼油设施技术升级与改造以及炼厂新建需求。由于紧邻亚洲石油贸易中心,市场竞争压力大,加之碳中和目标的承诺,预计大洋洲地区炼油工业将面临更大挑战。RCEP区内成品油产量低于需求量,呈供不应求态势,同时区内国家成品油供需不平衡。以日本、印度尼西亚、澳大利亚等为主的消费国,成品油产量低于消费量,为区内主要的成品油进口国。RCEP区内进口油品以石脑油、液化石油气和燃料油为主,汽油和柴油也需要进口;航空燃料供大于求,可少量出口。预计未来区内成品油产量仍低于需求量,且供需缺口会进一步加大。

On January 1,2022,the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) entered into force.The development of oil refining industry in RCEP region is unbalanced.Singapore,South Korea,and Japan have developed oil refining industry,while other countries have underdeveloped oil refining industry with small refinery scale and weak oil refining facilities.In the long run,many ASEAN countries need to upgrade and transform refining facilities and build new refineries.The refining industry in the Oceania region is expected to face further challenges due to competitive market pressures for its proximity to Asia’s oil trading hub and the commitment of carbon neutrality targets.The output of refined oil in the RCEP region is lower than the demand with unbalanced demand.Consumer countries such as Japan,Indonesia,and Australia are the main importers of refined oil in the region,whose output is lower than consumption,and become major importers of refined oil in the region.Naphtha,LPG,and fuel oil are the main oil imported from RCEP.Gasoline and diesel are also imported,aviation fuel that is in surplus can be exported in small quantities.It is expected that the output of refined oil products in the region will still be lower than the demand in the future,and the gap between supply and demand will further increase.