中国县域陆路交通优势度格局演化及经济效应

Evolution of China’s overland transportation dominance and its economic effect: A county-level analysis

基于2009年、2014年和2018年全国陆路交通数据,集成路网密度、人口加权平均交通邻近度和区位优势度3个指标,构建陆路交通优势度评价模型,刻画2009—2018年中国县域陆路交通的规模、邻近水平和通达水平,揭示陆路交通优势度的空间格局、演化特征及经济效应。研究表明:(1) 2009—2018年中国陆路交通建设取得显著成效,陆路交通优势度增长热点具有由城镇密集区向区际通道拓展的特征,与“两横三纵”城市化战略密切相关,陆路交通劣势主要位于西部、东北和省际边界地区,是交通均衡发展补短板的关键区域。(2)中国陆路交通优势区域的空间结构在不同区域和发展阶段存在差异,其演化过程大致经历极核式、点轴式和轴辐式3个阶段,未来交通建设应强化重要区域、交通主轴、关键走廊之间的衔接。(3)中国陆路交通优势度的总体经济效应为显著正效应,其间接效应约为直接效应的1.5倍。但是交通建设并不总是促进县域经济增长,交通优势的不同维度对经济发展的作用不同,在不同区域背景和经济发展阶段也存在差异,需要重视区位优势度改善可能带来的负面效应。

Overland transportation is the fundamental support of regional economic and social development. Based on the national data about overland transportation in 2009, 2014, and2018, we develop an evaluation model of transportation dominance involving three dimensions,namely, scale, proximity, and accessibility. These dimensions are interpreted by road density,population-weighted average transportation proximity, and location advantage, respectively. We further reveal the spatial pattern and evolution of overland transportation dominance and then estimate its economic effect. The results show that:(1) Significant progress has been made in China’s overland transportation from 2009 to 2018. Overland transportation dominance expands from urban intensive areas to inter-regional channels, which is closely related to the urbanization strategy called a "two horizontal and three vertical" pattern. The inferiority of overland transportation is mainly found in the western, northeastern, and provincial border areas. These areas are the key to balanced transportation development to make up for the current shortcomings.(2) The spatial patterns of the overland transportation dominance are different in different regions and development stages, which can be abstracted as the evolution of "pole-and-core, point-and-axis, and hub-and-spokes". Future transportation development should strengthen the connection between important regions, the main transportation axes, and the key transportation corridors.(3) The overall economic effect of overland transportation dominance is significantly positive, and its indirect effect is about 1.5 times as large as the direct effect. However, transportation does not always promote county economic growth,whose sub-dimensional economic effect varies in different regions and periods.