住房价格与经济增长:基于中间品需求渠道及其乘数效应的分析

House Price and Economic Growth:An Analysis Based on the Intermediate Demand Channel and Its Multiplier Effect

本文通过在模型中引入房地产业与其他产业之间的投入产出关系,研究中间品需求渠道及其乘数效应如何导致住房价格对经济增长产生倒U型的影响。本文的研究发现:引入投入产出关系不仅能够提高模型对中国经济的解释能力,而且会通过中间品需求渠道及其乘数效应导致稳态中住房价格与产出水平之间出现倒U型关系——当房价较低时,两个部门之间的投入产出关系使得中间品需求和最终品需求相互带动,导致住房价格上涨会拉动经济增长;但是,当房价超过某一个阈值时,房价上涨带来的中间品价格上涨和生产成本上升导致厂商降低产出水平和对中间品的需求,中间品需求渠道及其乘数效应开始发挥反向的作用,导致房价上涨会抑制经济增长。根据中间品需求渠道及其乘数效应,在房地产调控中一方面要充分发挥房地产业作为国民经济重要支柱产业的作用,将促进房地产市场平稳健康发展作为调控总基调,避免调控政策大起大落;另一方面要充分认识到房价上涨过快对经济增长的不利影响,坚决贯彻“房子是用来住的,不是用来炒的”调控原则,遏制房价过快上涨。

Since the reform of urban housing system in 1998,the real estate regulation in China has roughly experienced two different stages.The early regulation policies fully recognized the positive effect of real estate market on economic growth,and real estate regulation has become one of the main policies to maintain stable growth.However,when the rapid rise of house price,the negative effect of real estate market on national economy began to appear.In recent years,China’s real estate regulation has changed.It begins to emphasize that houses are for living in,not for speculation and suppress the excessive rise in house price.The transformation of China’s real estate regulation and the results of empirical studies show that house price has an inverted U-shaped impact on economic growth.However,there is no suitable analysis framework that can be used to study the theoretical mechanism of this inverted U-shaped effect.The marginal contribution of this paper is to put forward a new theoretical mechanism,namely,the intermediate demand channel and its multiplier effect,which is based on the input-output relationship between the real estate and other industries.This paper explains why house price has an inverted U-shaped impact on economic growth in China through the intermediate demand channel and its multiplier effect.The benchmark dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling(DSGE)model includes two production sectors,namely,a consumer goods sector and a real estate sector,and two kinds of households,namely,patient households and impatient households.This paper introduces the input-output relationship between two production sectors by adding intermediate goods as a new production factor and intermediate sector.This paper finds input-output relationship introduces the intermediate demand channel and its multiplier effect to the model.This reflects that the real estate industry has a close relation with other industries and has a strong pulling effect on other industries.Therefore,the explanatory power of theoretical model to China’s economy is improved.More importantly,the intermediate demand channel and its multiplier effect lead to an inverted U-shaped relationship between house price and aggregate output in the steady state,which can endogenously describe the inverted U-shaped impact of house price on economic growth.The theoretical mechanism is as follows.When house price is low,the rise in house price can not only drive the output of real estate industry,but also drive the output of other industries through the intermediate demand channel,so as to increase household wage and final goods demand.The demand of intermediate and final goods pull each other,resulting in a multiplier effect.At this time,although the rise in house price leads to the rise of intermediate price and production cost,household wage and final goods price increase,and firms’profit also rise,so that the output and the intermediate demand are improved.However,when house price exceeds a certain threshold,which drives the production cost to exceed a threshold,firms’profit decline,thus reduces the output and the intermediate demand.At this time,the intermediate demand channel and its multiplier effect play an opposite role.The decline in intermediate demand decreases household wage and final goods demand,and the rise of house price suppresses economic growth through the multiplier effect.This paper has important policy implications for China’s real estate regulation.Firstly,the government should realize that the real estate industry has a close relation with other industries and has a strong pulling effect on other industries.The general tone of real estate regulation should be promoting the steady and healthy development of real estate market,avoiding large fluctuations of regulation policies.Secondly,the government should realize that the excessive rise in house price has led to a sharp rise in households’living costs and firms’operating costs,and the adverse impact on economic growth has appeared.Therefore,the government should implement the regulation principle that houses are for living in,not for speculation to suppress the excessive rise in house price.Finally,the government should apply systemic thinking in real estate regulation.Caused by input-output relationship,the complex relationship between different industries influences shock transmission,steady-state equilibrium and policy effect,so it is necessary to deepen the relevant theoretical and policy research.