2015—2020年保定市流行性感冒发病与气象因素的关系分析

Study on relationship between incidence of influenza and meteorological factors in Baoding City from 2015-2020

目的分析保定市流感样(influenza-like Illness,ILI)病例与气象因素的关系。方法收集2015—2020年保定市ILI监测数据和同期气象因素数据,并对数据进行分析。结果ILI的发生与周均温度和周均相对湿度、周均降水量均呈负相关(r=-0.313、-0.222、-0.268,均P<0.01)。ILI数据受平均温度、平均气压和平均风速的影响,三者的标准化偏回归系数分别为-0.907、-0.619和-0.153。广义相加模型结果显示,当周均温度<4℃、周均气压≥1015 hpa、周均风速<2 m/s时,流行性感冒(流感)感染发病与三者呈负相关,峰面积比值(enantiomreric ratio,ER)值分别为-0.112、-0.058和-0.503。结论2015—2020年保定市ILI与气象因素相关,在低温低风速的气象条件下,应做好流感的预防控制工作。

Objective To explore the correlation between influenza-like illness(ILI)cases and meteorological factors in Baoding City.Methods The monitoring data of ILI cases and meteorological factors in Baoding City during 2015-2020 were collected,and the data were analyzed.Results The occurrence of ILI cases was negatively correlated with the weekly average temperature,weekly average relative humidity and weekly average precipitation(r=-0.313,-0.222,-0.268,all P<0.01).The number of ILI cases was affected by average temperature,average air pressure and average wind speed,and the normalized partial regression coefficient was-0.907,-0.619 and-0.153,respectively.The results of generalized additive model showed that when the weekly average temperature<4℃,the weekly average air pressure≥1015 hpa and the weekly average wind speed<2 m/s,the incidence of influenza infection was negatively correlated with them,and the enantiomeric ratio(ER)was-0.112,-0.058 and-0.503,respectively.Conclusion The ILI cases are correlated with the meteorological factors in Baoding City 2015-2020,and the prevention and control of influenza should be strengthened in low temperature and low wind speed meteorological conditions.