俄乌冲突主要利益攸关方之博弈及其影响

Game of the Main Stakeholders in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Its Influence

2022年2月24日,俄罗斯宣布对乌克兰采取特别军事行动,目的是在乌克兰“去军事化、去纳粹化和迫使乌克兰保持中立”。俄军行动开始后,美国联合盟友对俄罗斯发起前所未有的制裁,同时向乌克兰提供大量军事援助。俄乌冲突已经延续5个多月,造成大量人员和财产损失。这场冲突表面上是俄乌两个斯拉夫兄弟骨肉相残,实际上是美俄战略博弈,是美国利用乌克兰危机遏制和打压俄罗斯,也是俄罗斯对美国和西方遏制俄政策的大反攻。在这场冲突中,美国通过策动各种冲突维护霸主地位的战略特点更加清晰,引起世界警觉;俄罗斯通过混合战争维护自身利益和势力范围的决心,再次令世界感到震惊;欧洲在冲突中的尴尬处境将促使其进一步实现战略自主;乌克兰沦为大国博弈的棋子,已经分崩离析。在百年未有之大变局下,这场冲突对世界格局和欧亚稳定的深远影响,值得关注。

On February 24,2022,Russia launched a special military operation against Ukraine with the purpose of promoting"demilitarizing and de-Nazification in Ukraine as well as forcing Ukraine to remain neutral".Since the start of the military operation,the US and its allies have imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia,while providing a large amount of military assistance to Ukraine.The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for more than 5 months,leading to a lot of causalities and loss of property.This conflict seems to be a feud between two Slav brothers,Russia and Ukraine.But in essence,it is a strategic game between the US and Russia.In terms of this conflict,US'strategic aim to maintain its hegemony by instigating various conflicts became clearer;Russia's determination to safeguard its own interests and sphere of influence through hybrid warfare once again shocked the world;The difficulties brought by the conflict prompt EU to further pursue its strategic autonomy;Ukraine became a pawn in the game of big powers and fell apart.Given the profound changes of the international system in recent years,more attention should be paid to the far-reaching impact of this conflict on the world structure and Eurasian stability.