地下水水环境中的非突发性水质风险预测模型研究

Non-sudden Water Quality Risk Prediction Model in Groundwater Environment

通过对地下水水质的分析可知非突发水质风险的主要因素是定量因素以及一些不可量化的因素。基于此建立一个地下水环境中的非突发性水质风险预测模型。将地下水水环境简化为一个串联式反应器,确定非突发性水质预测模型参数,利用熵权模型构建非突发性水质风险预测模型。构建非突发性水质风险的预测框架,并使用加权内梅罗指数模型对研究区域的地下水水环境的非突发性水质进行评价。实验结果表明该方法在地下水恒定流情况下与非恒定流情况下预测结果与实际结果之间的最大偏差分别为0.02 mg/L和0.005 mg/L,能够达到应急预警功能需求。

The analysis of groundwater quality show that the main factors of non sudden water quality risk are quantitative factors and some non quantifiable factors. Based on this, a non sudden water quality risk prediction model in groundwater environment is established. The groundwater environment is simplified as a series reactor, the parameters of the non sudden water quality prediction model are determined, and the non sudden water quality risk prediction model is constructed by using the entropy weight model. The prediction framework of non sudden water quality risk is constructed, and the weighted Nemero index model is used to evaluate the non sudden water quality of groundwater environment in the study area. The experimental results show that the maximum deviation between the predicted results and the actual results is 0.02 mg/l and 0.005 mg/l respectively under the condition of constant and unsteady groundwater flow, which can meet the requirements of emergency early warning function.