近年烟农队伍年龄结构及变化趋势分析——以湖南浏阳沙市镇为例

Analysis of the Age Structure and Trend of Tobacco Farmers in Recent Years——Taking Shashi Town of Liuyang City of Hunan Province as an Example

以浏阳沙市镇烟区为对象,统计分析最近10年各年份在册烟农、新增烟农、退出烟农的数量、平均年龄、不同年龄段烟农数量和占比,不同年代出生的烟农数量、占比,以及烤烟种植规模及种烟历史。结果显示:浏阳沙市镇烟农队伍数量在2012—2018年呈快速下降趋势,平均年龄持续增加,平均种植规模震荡上升。2019—2021年烟农队伍烟农数量下降速度趋缓,平均种植规模持续增加,但烟农老化变化加速。同时,烟农队伍出生年代进一步向60后群体、年龄向50~59岁年龄段集中,浏阳沙市镇烟叶产业面临的烟农队伍老化、烤烟种植后继无人的危机加速发展。基于此,预计未来5~10年仍将延续2019—2021年变化趋势。

Taking the tobacco area of Shashi town in Liuyang as the object,the number,average age,numbers and ratio of registered tobacco farmers,new tobacco farmers,withdrawn farmers at different ages in recent ten years,numbers and ratio of farmers who born in different decades of registered,new or resigned tobacco farmers in Shashi town of Liuyang,as well as their planting history and scale were analyzed.The results showed that there was a rapid decline of farmers number from 2012 to 2018 in Shashi town of Liuyang,the average age continuously increased and the planting scale rose.The drop speed of the average age slowed down,and the average planting scale continued to increase from 2019 to 2021,while the aging of farmers was speeding up.Meanwhile,the age of tobacco farmer was further concentrated in the post-60s group and the age group is 50 to 59 years old,and the tobacco planting industry in Shashi town of Liuyang faces the crisis of aging tobacco farmers and no successor for flue-cured tobacco planting.Based on this,it was forecasted that the change trend from 2019 to 2021 would continue in the next 5 to 10 years.