中国农业产业关联和波及效应比较分析——以河南、山东为例

Comparative Analysis of Agricultural Industry Correlation and Ripple Effect in China——Taking Henan and Shandong as Examples

随着中国经济和社会的发展,农业步入新阶段,未来农业发展离不开与国民经济其他产业部门的相互作用。投入产出分析法是一种解释各部门间直接和间接联系的数量分析方法,通过投入产出分析可以得出中国农业目前与其他部门的关联效应。利用2017年河南和山东两个农业大省投入产出数据,分别计算两省农业的直接消耗系数、完全消耗系数、中间投入率和中间需求率、感应度系数、影响力系数,比较分析两省农业与其他部门的关联情况。结果显示:河南省农业物质投入力度大;山东省农业与化学产品、批发零售关联性强,河南省农业与金融业有联系;两省农业都属于中间产品型基础产业,易受国民经济影响,但缺乏对经济的推动力。因此,两省农业乃至中国农业产业在未来的发展中应加快与流通业、金融服务业的融合,大力扶持涉农企业发展,优化产业结构,促进农业现代化。

With the development of China’s economy and society,agriculture has entered a new stage.The future agricultural development is inseparable from the interaction with other industrial sectors of the national economy.Input-output analysis is a quantitative analysis method to explain the direct and indirect relationship between various sectors,through the input-output analysis,we can get the correlation effect between China’s agriculture and other sectors.Using the input-output data of two major agricultural provinces in China,namely Henan and Shandong in 2017,the direct consumption coefficient,complete consumption coefficient,intermediate input rate and intermediate demand rate,sensitivity coefficient and influence coefficient of agriculture in the two provinces were calculated respectively to compare and analyze the correlation between agriculture and other departments in the two provinces.The main results showed that:Henan province has a large amount of agricultural material investment,agriculture in Shandong province is strongly related to chemical products,wholesale and retail,and agriculture in Henan province is related to the financial industry;agriculture in the two provinces belongs to intermediate product-based basic industries,which are vulnerable to the impact of the national economy,but lack of driving force for the economy.Therefore,in the future,the agriculture development of the two provinces and even China’s agricultural industry should accelerate the integration with the circulation industry and financial service industry,vigorously support the development of agricultural enterprises,optimize the industrial structure and promote agricultural modernization.