提高烟草消费税对我国控烟影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Increasing Tobacco Excise Tax on Tobacco Control in China

提高烟草消费税和卷烟价格,一方面可以达到控烟的效果,另一方面可以增加国家的税收。本文基于2011~2019年27个省(区、市)的面板数据,从理论和实证进行分析,得出以下结论。首先,从烟草消费总量来看,烟草消费税的提高对卷烟消费量的影响呈现明显的负相关,烟草消费税的提高也显著地促进了烟草税收入的增加。其次,烟草消费税的提高对不同种类的卷烟消费量具有不同的影响,对于高档烟(一类)的消费量影响不降反升,对于低档烟(五类)的消费量影响达到了控烟的效果。再次,居民可支配收入的增加对于烟草消费总体来说具有抑制的作用,而对于不同种类的烟草具有不同的影响,对于高档烟消费具有抑制的作用,对于低档烟消费具有促进的作用。最后,不论是机理分析还是实证分析都可以得出,烟草消费税率的提高是通过烟草价格的提高这一中介变量实现的。

Raising tobacco excise tax and cigarette price can achieve the effect of tobacco control on the one hand, and increase national tax revenue on the other hand. Based on the panel data of 27 provinces from 2011 to 2019, this paper analyzes theoretically and empirically. Firstly, from the perspective of total tobacco consumption, the impact of tobacco excise tax increases on cigarette consumption is significantly negatively correlated, and the increase also contributed significantly to the increase in tobacco tax revenue. Secondly, the increase of tobacco excise tax has different effects on the consumption of different types of cigarettes. The impact on the consumption of high-end cigarettes(category 1) does not decrease but increases, and the impact on the consumption of low-end cigarettes(category 5) has achieved the effect of tobacco control. Thirdly, the increase of residents’ disposable income has an inhibitory effect on tobacco consumption as a whole, but has different effects on different types of cigarettes, inhibiting the consumption of high-end cigarettes, and promoting the consumption of low-end cigarettes. Finally, both the mechanism analysis and the empirical analysis can conclude that the increase of tobacco excise tax rate is realized through the intermediary variable of the increase of cigarette price.