2021年8月几内亚马尔堡病毒病疫情风险评估

Risk Assessment of Marburg Virus Disease in Guinea in August 2021

目的评估几内亚马尔堡病毒病疫情输入我国并进一步引起本地传播的风险,为口岸传染病防控措施的制定提供科学依据。方法在资料综述的基础上进行定性评估。结果几内亚马尔堡病毒病病例输入我国并进一步引起本地传播的可能性低;马尔堡病毒病传染性强、病死率高,病例输入我国的危害性高。结论几内亚马尔堡病毒病疫情输入我国的风险为中等风险,口岸需密切关注疫情发展态势,有针对性加强防控工作。

Objective To assess the risk of Marburg virus disease in Guinea importing into China and leading to local transmission,and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of infectious diseases at entry and exit ports.Methods Qualitative risk assessment was carried out on the basis of literature review.Results There was a low probability that Marburg cases imported into China and leading to local transmission.Marburg virus disease was a contagious disease that had high infectivity and mortality rates,the severity of the consequences of Marburg cases importing into China was assessed to be high.Conclusion The risk level of Marburg virus disease importing into China and leading to local transmission is assessed to be moderate.It is necessary to pay attention to the epidemic situation and strengthen quarantine inspection at entry and exit ports.