洞庭湖平原耕地利用生态效率空间相关性与空间效应

Spatial Correlation and Spatial Effect of Cultivated Land Use Ecological Efficiency in the Dongting Lake Plain

以2007—2017年洞庭湖平原24县(区、市)为研究对象,基于碳排放和面源污染排放双重视角构建洞庭湖平原耕地利用生态效率评价指标体系,运用超效率SBM模型(Slacks-Based Measure of Super-Efficiency model,Super-SBM model)、空间自相关模型、空间计量模型等方法,分析洞庭湖平原耕地利用生态效率的时空变化、空间相关性,并揭示洞庭湖平原耕地利用生态效率的空间效应及影响因素。结果表明:(1)2007—2017年洞庭湖平原耕地利用生态效率值呈现出平缓的“升-降-升”的演变趋势,总体上处于中等效率发展水平,区域县际间耕地利用生态效率差异逐步在缩小。(2)洞庭湖平原耕地利用生态效率存在显著的空间集聚特征,高高集聚区主要分布在洞庭平原的西南部和南部,低低集聚区主要分布在洞庭平原的北部和西北部,空间格局的变化主要发生在高低集聚区和低高集聚区。(3)洞庭湖平原耕地利用生态效率存在显著的空间效应,城市化水平、地区科技投入、农业技术推广面积、农户人均纯收入和农户人均农业产值对耕地利用生态效率存在显著的正向效应,而城乡差异和财政支农支出额对耕地利用生态效率存在负向效应。

On the basis of the dual perspectives of carbon emissions and non-point pollution emissions,this article construct the ecological efficiency evaluation index system of cultivated land use in the Dongting Lake Plain.Taking 24 counties(districts and cities) in the Dongting Lake Plain from 2007 to 2017 as the research object,using Slacks-Based Measure of Super-Efficiency model(Super-SBM model) and spatial autocorrelation models,spatial measurement models and other methods,this article analyzes the temporal and spatial changes and spatial correlation of the ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in the Dongting Lake Plain,and shows the spatial effects and influencing factors of the ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in the Dongting Lake Plain.The results show that:1) The ecological efficiency value of cultivated land use in the Dongting Lake Plain from 2007 to 2017 showed a gentle evolution trend of “rising-fall-rising”,and was generally at a medium-efficiency development level.The difference in ecological efficiency of cultivated land use among regional counties gradually shrinking.2) The ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in the Dongting Lake Plain has significant spatial agglomeration features.High-high agglomeration areas are mainly distributed in the southwest and south of the Dongting Lake Plain,and low-low agglomeration areas are mainly distributed in the north and northwest of the Dongting Lake Plain.The spatial pattern changes mainly occur in high-low agglomeration areas and lowhigh agglomeration areas.3) The ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in the Dongting Lake Plain has significant spatial effects.The level of urbanization,regional scientific and technological investment,agricultural technology extension area,per capita net income of farmers,and per capita agricultural output value of farmers have significant positive effects on the ecological efficiency of cultivated land use.Urban and rural differences and fiscal expenditures for agriculture have a negative effect on the ecological efficiency of cultivated land use.In the future,the horizontal linkage mechanism among counties be established to promote the technology and policy spilt over in the high value areas of ecological efficiency of cultivated land use,to drive the linkage development in the low value areas.At the same time,farmland ecological planting subsidies will be further increased to promote farmers’ farmland planting behavior from environmentally unfriendly to environmentally friendly.