官员特征、任期与预算政策制定--基于省级预算稳定调节基金的实证分析

Official Characteristics,Tenure,and Budget Policymaking:Empirical Analyses of the Budget Stabilization Adjustment Funds of Chinese Provincial Governments

官员特征与任期对其财务管理行为的影响是一个十分重要的研究问题。论文以中国省级政府为研究对象,主要关注省主政官员的更替、任期和年龄对政府预算稳定调节基金规模的影响。2007年我国建立了预算稳定调节基金制度,基于此,该研究收集了2008—2019年全国30个省份108位省长、90位省委书记的个人简历和预算稳定调节基金规模等相关数据,实证检验了官员特征和任期对预算稳定调节基金规模的影响。研究发现,由于受到不同时期晋升激励的差异性影响,省委书记和省长的更替、任期对预算稳定调节基金的影响不同。省委书记的更替、任期对预算稳定调节基金的存入规模存在正向影响,省长的任期对预算稳定调节基金的存入规模存在负向影响。论文拓展了预算稳定调节基金的分析视角,不仅揭示了我国地方政府官员特征与任期对预算政策制定的影响机制,也剖析了政府官员不同时期的政策偏好及行为选择的内在逻辑。论文的研究结果表明,地方政府官员特征与任期是解释我国预算政策制定方向变化的重要变量,为我国进一步完善预算稳定调节基金制度和干部人事任用制度提供了路径启示。

The effect of officials’characteristics and tenure on their financial management behavior is an important research question.This paper takes the Chinese provincial government as the research object and focuses on the influence of the replacement,tenure,and age of the provincial chief officials on the size of the government budget stabilization fund.In 2007,China established the budget stabilization fund system.This study collected the personal resumes of 108 governors and 90 provincial party secretaries in 30 provinces across the country from 2008 to 2019,the scale of the budget stabilization fund,and other relevant data.This paper examines the effects of provincial leaders’characteristics and tenure on the size of budget stabilization funds.Due to the differences in the promotion incentives,the replacement and tenure of provincial party committee secretaries and governors had different effects on the budget stabilization fund.The replacement and tenure of the provincial party secretaries had a positive impact on the size of the budget stability adjustment fund,and the tenure of the provincial governor had a negative impact on the size of the budget stability adjustment fund.This paper expands the analytical perspective of budget stabilization funds,not only revealing the impact mechanism of officials’characteristics and tenure on budget policy formulation,but also analyzing the internal logic of government officials’policy preferences and behavior choices in different periods.The research results show that official characteristics and tenure are highly relevant for government budget policymaking.It helps explain the changes in the direction of budget policy formulation and provides path inspiration to further improve the budget stability adjustment fund system and the cadre personnel appointment system.