环南海地区与域外国家军品贸易格局特征及地缘战略启示

Spatial characteristics of arms trade pattern of the South China Sea Region and its geopolitical implications

环南海地区是21世纪海上丝绸之路的起点和战略枢轴,其和平稳定对推动“一带一路”建设和区域发展繁荣具有重要作用。通过对环南海地区与域外国家军品贸易格局进行分析,探讨域内外军品贸易网络结构与格局特征。结果显示:①环南海地区军品贸易规模演化特征受到地区局势的影响显著,军品种类的进口与地缘战略和地理结构密切相关;②俄罗斯和美国作为环南海地区最大的两个军品输入国其军品分布与流向体现了遏制与突围的战略态势,军品贸易网络在多国主导下的收缩和去中心化的特点体现了地区局势趋向于缓和与稳定的态势;③中国对俄罗斯、法国和乌克兰等国的军品进口依赖程度呈下降趋势,并发展成为具有较大规模的军品出口国;④未来中国宜持续推进南海命运共同体建设,以战略智慧处理中美关系,充分利用强大的经济影响力加强与环南海地区域内外国家的国际合作,积极谋求主动与和平发展,携手各国共同将南海打造成和平之海、友谊之海、合作之海。

The South China Sea is the starting point and strategic pivot of the 21st century Maritime Silk Road.Its peace and stability plays an important role in promoting the construction of the"Belt and Road"and regional development and prosperity.Through the analysis of the geo-economic relationship and geo-development strategy of the arms trade pattern of the countries in the South China Sea region and countries outside the region.The conclusions are drawn as follows:①The evolution of the scale of arms trade in the South China Sea region is significantly affected by the regional situation,and the import of weapon types is closely related to geostrategies and the structure of land and sea;②Russia and the United States,as the two largest arms importers in the South China Sea Rim,their arms trade distribution and flow reflects the strategic situation of containment and breakthrough.The shrinking and decentralization of the arms trade network under the leadership of many countries reflects the tendency of the regional situation to ease and stabilize;③China's dependence on arms imports from Russia,France,Ukraine and other countries has shown a downward trend,and China has developed into a relatively large-scale arms exporter;④In the future,China should continue to promote the construction of a community with a shared future in South China Sea,and handle Sino-US relations with strategic wisdom,actively use international arms control system to supervise and regulate military exports,strengthen international cooperation,avoid direct military conflicts,and actively pursue peaceful development,work together to make South China Sea a sea of peace,friendship and cooperation.