海南自贸港与泛南海国家的地缘经济关系演变及其影响因素

The geo-economic relations between Hainan Free Trade Port and Pan-South China Sea countries and its impact factors

泛南海经济圈是全球经济要素最活跃的地区之一。加强海南自贸港与周边国家的地缘经济联系有利于推进海南自贸港的建设,提升区域经贸合作层次与水平。本文基于贸易、投资、产业、金融等方面的综合考虑,构建地缘经济关系指标体系,并通过熵值法和灰色关联法探究海南自贸港与泛南海国家的地缘经济关系演变及其影响因素。研究发现(:1)2005—2019年,海南自贸港与泛南海国家的地缘经济关系一直相对较弱,且未出现显著提升。其中,贸易联系相对紧密,投资、产业、金融联系有待进一步加强。(2)2005—2019年,海南自贸港与泛南海国家地缘经济关系的时空格局变动明显,缅甸、新加坡波动幅度较大。总体来看,海南自贸港与新加坡、越南、文莱、印尼的经济联系最强,与老挝、印度、孟加拉国、斯里兰卡的经济联系最弱。(3)市场是海南自贸港地缘经济关系的首要影响因素,成本约束对地缘经济具有一定影响,而生产要素的影响相对有限。

The Pan-South China Sea economic circle is one of the most active regions in the global economy.Strengthening the geo-economic relations between Hainan Free Trade Port and neighboring countries is conducive to promoting the construction and improving regional economic and trade cooperation’s level.This paper constructed a geo-economic relations index system from the aspects of trade,investment,industry and finance,and explored the evolution and influencing factors of the geo-economic connection pattern between Hainan Free Trade Port and Pan-South China Sea countries through entropy method and grey correlation method.The study found that:(1)From 2005 to 2019,the geo-economic connection between Hainan Free Trade Port and Pan-South China Sea countries is at a low level,and there is no significant improvement.Among them,trade relations are relatively close,and investment,industrial and financial relations need to be further strengthened.(2)From 2005 to 2019,the temporal and spatial pattern of geo-economic connection between Hainan Free Trade Port and Pan-South China Sea countries changes significantly,and Myanmar and Singapore fluctuate greatly.Overall,Hainan Free Trade Port has the strongest economic relations with Singapore,Vietnam,Brunei and Indonesia,and the weakest economic relations with Laos,India,Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.(3)Market is the primary influencing factor of Hainan’s geo-economic relations.Cost constraints have a certain impact on the economic relations,while the impact of production factors is limited.