工业遗产改造对周边住宅价格的溢出价值研究——以合钢厂为例

The Spillover Value Prediction of Industrial Heritage Transformation on Residential Housing Price

实践中我国对工业遗产的保护利用大多以改造成文化创意园区为主,改造后的工业遗产能够给区域经济、社会和环境带来明显的溢出效应。本文以马钢(合肥)钢铁公司工业遗产为研究对象,将BP神经网络法和Hedonic模型相结合,预测未来合钢厂改造为文化创意产业用途情境下,其对周边住宅市场的溢出价值。结果表明,现有改造为文化创意产业用途的工业遗产项目对周边住宅市场平均有9.19%的溢价水平;基于此,用BP神经网络法预测合钢厂未来改造为文化创意产业用途后对周边2km范围内110组样本房源的溢出价值约为1238.50万元。

In practice,industrial heritage in China is mainly transformed into the cultural and creative park.The transformation of industrial heritage has obvious spillover effect to regional economy,society and environment.Using the industrial heritage project of Mahe Steel Company that still needs to be transformed as a case,the paper monetizes the spillover value of the industrial heritage project when it is transformed into a cultural and creative industry in future based on hedonic price model and BP neural network method.The results show that the transformation of industrial heritage has a significant value-added effect on the surrounding housing,with an increase rate of about 9.19%.the spillover value of the transformation of Mahe Steel Company on sample housing price within 2km is about 12.3850 million yuan.