公路隧道路段静态行车风险指标体系构建与评估

Construction and Evaluation of Static Traffic Risk Index System in Highway Tunnel Sections

为减少高速公路隧道路段交通事故的发生,合理评价公路隧道行车风险等级,文章引入“静态行车风险”的概念,基于风险发生的可能性和风险事故的严重性两个方面选取了与道路、环境和管理相关的13个静态指标,构建风险评价矩阵,并综合应用多种方法进行分析验证。首先,利用信息量最大法对定量指标定权,熵权法对定性指标定权;进而结合层次分析法(AHP法)构建评价矩阵,引入逼近理想点法(TOPSIS法)计算表征风险的相对接近度值;最后,将秩和比法(RSR法)分档标准融入风险等级划分,以相对接近度值表征风险程度,进行风险分级评价。并以西南某山区高速公路隧道路段为例,对提出的方法进行验证。结果表明:该公路隧道路段静态行车风险发生的可能性为Ⅲ级,严重性为Ⅲ级,综合风险等级为Ⅲ级,评价结果与2012年~2018年内某山区高速隧道路段13.5%事故率相符合,评价模型可表征某山区公路隧道路段的静态行车风险状况。

To reduce the occurrence of traffic accidents in highway tunnel section and reasonably evaluate the traffic risk degree of highway tunnel,the concept of “static traffic risk” was introduced in this paper. Based on the possibility of risk occurrence and the severity of risk accident,13 static indexes related to road,environment and management were selected to construct the risk evaluation matrix and a variety of methods are comprehensively used for analysis and verification. Firstly, the quantitative indexes were weighted by Information Maximization,and the qualitative indexes were weighted by Entropy Weight Method. Then, the evaluation matrix was constructed by Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution(TOPSIS) was introduced to calculate the relative proximity value of the risk. Finally, the classification standard of Rank-Sum Ratio(RSR) was integrated into the risk level classification,the relative proximity value was used to represent the risk degree, and the risk classification evaluation was carried out.Taking a highway tunnel in a mountainous area in southwest China as an example,the proposed method was verified. The results show that the probability of the static traffic risk in this highway tunnel section is Grade Ⅲ,the severity is grade Ⅲ,and the comprehensive risk is grade Ⅲ,the result of the evaluation is consistent with the accident rate of 13.5% in 2012 ~ 2018 in a mountain highway tunnel section. The evaluation model can represent the static traffic risk of a mountain highway tunnel section.