“环境库兹列茨曲线”检验与地方政府目标识别——基于绿色发展指标的实证研究

Environmental Kuznets Curve Test and Local Government Target Recognition:An Empirical Study Based on Green Development Indicators

“环境库兹列茨曲线”是考察经济增长与生态环境保护之间关系阶段性特征的经典方法,但该假说对中国的适用性以及其内在的机理等方面仍然存在较大的争议。通过绿色发展指标体系的构建、利用计量模型对“环境库兹列茨曲线”在中国的适用性进行实证检验,其结果显示,经济增长与生态环境保护之间存在非线性关系,生态环境保护与经济发展之间既能相互促进也有内在矛盾。这表明“环境库兹列茨曲线”适用于中国,但结果也显示“环境库兹列茨曲线”存在明显的门限效应,且地方政府的发展目标对其有重要影响。要实现绿色发展的目标,需要进一步深化政府绩效考核改革,积极引导和鼓励社会与市场的力量的参与,打造“绿色发展”政策“大礼包”,增强民众、企业、政府等各利益相关群体对绿色发展的心理预期。

Environmental Kuznets curve is a classical hypothesis to investigate the phased characteristics of the relationship between economic growth and eco-environmental protection,but there are still considerable disputes about its applicability to China and its internal mechanism.Through the construction of green development index system and the use of econometric model,this paper empirically tests the applicability of Environmental Kuznets curve to China.The results show that there is a nonlinear relationship between economic growth and eco-environmental protection,and there are both endogeneity and contradiction between ecological environmental protection and economic development.This shows that the Environmental Kuznets curve is suitable for China,but the results also show that the Environmental Kuznets curve has an obvious threshold effect,and the development objectives of local governments have an important impact on it.To achieve the goal of green development,we need to further deepen the reform of government performance appraisal,actively guide and encourage the participation of social and market forces,create a“big gift bag”of“green development”policy,and enhance the psychological expectations of people,enterprises,governments and other stakeholder groups for green development.