气候变暖背景下甘南高原人体舒适度时空分布特征

Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Human Comfort in Gannan Plateau under the Background of Climate Warming

根据甘南2011—2020年逐日气象资料,用反距离权重法和通径分析,对旅游旺季(6—10月)ICHB时空分布及影响因子权重进行分析研究。结果表明:甘南旅游旺季舒适度主要为偏凉、凉爽、舒服等级,适宜避暑旅游。7月ICHB最高适宜日数最多,10月ICHB最低适宜日数最少,7—8月气象条件最适宜户外活动。ICHB和适宜日数呈正相关,表现为“三高(多)三低(少)”,即低海拔区高(多),高海拔区低(少);岷迭山区高(多),其他地区低(少);水资源充沛区高(多),其他地区低(少)。适宜日数与ICHB年际变化均有弱下降趋势,出于舒适度考虑,气候变暖不利于甘南全域旅游发展。影响甘南ICHB的主要因子是温度,湿度通过温度影响ICHB,温度(湿度)与ICHB呈正(负)相关,风速的影响不大。

Based on the daily meteorological data of Gannan from 2011 to 2020,the temporal and spatial distribution and influence factor weight of ICHB in peak tourism season(June to October)are analyzed and studied by using inverse distance weight method and path analysis.The results show that the comfort of Gannan in the peak season is mainly cool,cool and comfortable,which is suitable for summer tourism.The maximum number of suitable days for ICHB in July is the most,the minimum number of suitable days for ICHB in October is the least,and the meteorological conditions from July to August are the most suitable for outdoor activities.ICHB is positively correlated with the number of suitable days,which is"three high(more)and three low(less)",that is,high(more)in low altitude areas and low(less)in high altitude areas;High(more)in mindian mountain area and low(less)in other areas;High(more)in areas with abundant water resources and low(less)in other areas.The number of suitable days and the interannual change of ICHB have a weak downward trend.For the sake of comfort,climate warming is not conducive to the development of tourism in Gannan.The main factor affecting Gannan ICHB is temperature.Humidity affects ICHB through temperature.Temperature(humidity)is positively(negatively)correlated with ICHB,and wind speed has little effect.