海南自贸港建设背景下城市安全风险评估方法研究

Research on Urban Safety Risk Assessment Method Under the Background of Hainan Free Trade Port Construction

近年来,特别重大事故依然时有发生,城市安全风险管控依然有很多不足,城市安全风险管控手段和方法亟待加强。目前城市安全风险评估的研究还在探索阶段,我国尚未提出一套成熟的理论框架,本文通过将单个生产经营单位看作一个风险点,采用层次分析法和综合模糊评价方法,叠加计算得出线(行业)、面(区域)的风险数据,同时将城市风险评估工作流程化、标准化,以海口市某区为实践,总结了初步成果,为城市安全风险管控工作提供一定的指导和借鉴。

In recent years,particularly serious accidents still occur from time to time,which shows many deficiencies in urban safety risk control and its means and methods.At present,the research on urban safety risk assessment is still in the exploratory stage,and China has not proposed a mature theoretical framework.This paper regards a single production and business unit as a risk point,applies analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to obtain the risk data of line(industry)and plane(region).Meanwhile,the paper puts forward a standardized process of urban risk assessment based on practices in a district of Haikou City.Preliminary results are summarized in this paper to provide guidance and reference for urban safety risk management and control.