2015-2019年北京市短期气温波动对肺结核发病的影响

Association between short-term temperature variability and daily incidence of tuberculosis in Beijing,2015-2019

目的研究北京市短期气温波动与肺结核发病数量的关联,为肺结核预测、预警工作提供依据。方法北京市2015-2019年肺结核每日发病数据来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统。利用分布滞后非线性模型分析北京市短期气温波动指数对肺结核发病数量的影响,同时按性别、年龄和居住地所处区县进行分层分析。结果2015-2019年北京市共报告肺结核34271例,日均发病数为20例。近2 d的TV_(0~1)每增加1℃,肺结核发病数增加2.26%(95%CI:1.40%~3.12%),随着滞后天数的增加估计值迅速减小。该关联(TV_(0~1))在男性(2.68%,95%CI:1.60%~3.76%)、24岁以下(3.23%,95%CI:0.80%~5.66%)和60岁以上(2.80%,95%CI:1.15%~4.45%)以及北京城区居民(2.81%,95%CI:1.59%~4.03%)中关联强度更大。结论2015-2019年北京市短期气温波动与肺结核发病数量的增加存在关联,提示短期气温剧烈波动对肺结核在人群中的发生和流行可能存在一定影响,应在气温易波动起伏的季节和时间段加强肺结核的预测、预警。

Objective To examine the association between short-term temperature variability and daily incidence of tuberculosis in Beijing.To provide evidence for the prediction and warning for tuberculosis.Methods Daily incidence of tuberculosis in Beijing from 2015 to 2019 was obtained from the database of China information system for disease control and prevention.The distributed lag non-linear model was conducted to examine the association between temperature variability indicator and daily incidence of tuberculosis.Stratified analysis was carried out according to sex,age and residence location.Results From 2015 to 2019,a total of 34271 tuberculosis cases were reported in Beijing,with an average daily incidence of 20 cases.A 1℃increase in temperature variability at 0-1 days(TV_(0-1))was associated with a 2.26%(95%CI:1.40%-3.12%)increase in incidence of tuberculosis.The estimation decreased rapidly with the increase of lag days.The association(TV_(0-1))was stronger in men(2.68%,95%CI:1.60%-3.76%),<24 years old(3.23%,95%CI:0.80%-5.66%),>60 years old(2.80%,95%CI:1.15%-4.45%)and urban residents(2.81%,95%CI:1.59%-4.03%)in Beijing.Conclusions The short-term temperature variability was associated with the increase for incidence of tuberculosis in Beijing from 2015 to 2019,suggesting that the temperature variability may have impact on the occurrence and prevalence of tuberculosis.The prediction and early warning of tuberculosis should be strengthened in the seasons and time periods when the temperature is easy to fluctuate.