经济双循环协调发展水平及影响因素研究

Study on the Coordinated Development Level and Influencing Factors of Dual Circulation Economy

文章运用PVAR方法验证经济内循环和外循环存在互动效应,并利用物理容量耦合系统模型测度经济双循环协调发展水平及其影响因素。结果表明:中国省际经济双循环存在显著互动协调发展关系,不同省份之间存在较大差异;经济双循环协调发展水平整体呈上升趋势,但仍有一定提升空间;经济双循环协调发展水平在空间上呈现“东高中平西低”布局。此外,省际经济双循环协调发展水平受科学技术创新、科研经费投入等因素影响。

This paper uses the PVAR method to verify the interactive effect between the domestic and international dual circulation,and uses the Capacity Coupling System Model in the physical to measure the coordinated development level of economic dual circulation and its influencing factors.The results show that there is a significant coordinated development relationship between the domestic and international dual circulation of China's economy,and this relationship is quite different in different provinces.The overall coordinated development level of economic dual circulation is on the rise,but there is still a lot of room for improvement.The coordinated develop-ment level of the dual economic circulation presents a spatial layout of"high in the East,flat in the Middle and low in the West".In addition,the coordinated development level of economic dual circulation is affected by factors such as sci-tech innovation and scientific research fund investment.