粤港澳大湾区建设用地演变特征与动态模拟

Research on the Characteristics and Dynamic Simulation of the Evolution of Construction Land in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

研究建设用地演变格局对国土空间可持续高质量发展具有积极作用。本文采取空间扩张模型分析、标准差椭圆法、重心变动、空间自相关、元胞自动机模型等方法,定量分析了1990—2020年粤港澳大湾区建设用地演变特征,并基于元胞自动机进行了动态模拟。结果表明:①粤港澳大湾区建设用地表现出不同扩张特征,1990—2020年城市建设用地呈现扩张面积逐年增长、扩张强度逐渐减缓的特点;扩张模式主要呈现线性向东-外延式发散-圈层向外的扩张格局,广州佛山中山一体化趋势明显。②粤港澳大湾区整体向东扩张,并具有一定周期性,主要表现在建设用地重心由佛山市转向广州市,同时东西方向扩张程度不一,南北方向扩张程度较为均衡。③粤港澳大湾区空间集聚特征存在先增强后减弱再增强的趋势,建设用地主要集中在广州东莞深圳香港四市,整体呈现集聚区域增加、等级增强的特点。④利用元胞自动机结合社会经济等约束因子对城市用地扩张进行模拟预测得出城市群整体呈现“中心-边缘”的梯度扩张模式,具体表现为中部填补适宜建设用地,周边飞地式建设用地扩张,边缘式用地扩张三种建设用地扩张形式。

Studying the evolution pattern of construction land exerts a positive effect on the sustainable and high-quality development of national land space.In this paper,spatial expansion model analysis,standard deviation ellipse method,center of gravity change,spatial auto-correlation and meta-cellular automata model are adopted to quantitatively analyze the characteristics of construction land evolution in the Bay Area from 1990 to 2020,and a dynamic simulation was conducted accordingly.The results show that:①the construction land in the Bay Area exhibits different expansion characteristics,with the urban construction land from 1990 to 2020 showing a year-on-year increase in expansion area and gradual slowdown in expansion intensity;the expansion pattern mainly shows a linear eastward-extended dispersion-circle outward expansion pattern,with a clear trend of integration of Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhongshan.②The overall expansion direction of the Bay Area to the east is somewhat cyclical,mainly manifested by a shift in the center of gravity of construction land from Foshan City to Guangzhou City,while the expansion degree varies from east to west and is more balanced from north to south.③The spatial agglomeration characteristics of the Bay Area show a trend of strengthening-weakening-strengthening,with construction land concentrated in the four cities of Guangzhou,Dongguan,Shenzhen,and Hong Kong,showing an overall increase in the agglomeration area and level.④The simulation prediction of urban land expansion by using metacellular automata combined with socio-economic constraints shows that the urban agglomeration as a whole presents a gradient expansion pattern of“center-edge”,which is manifested in three forms of land expansion:construction land in the center,enclave-type land expansion in the periphery and edge-type land expansion.