丹江口水库入库月径流模拟及不确定性分析

Monthly Runoff Simulation and Uncertainty Analysis for Danjiangkou Reservoir

将SWAT模型与HUP处理器相耦合,对汉江流域丹江口水库的入库月径流过程进行模拟预测,在此基础上分析水文模型结果的不确定性。结果表明:(1)从各项精度评价指标来看,SWAT模型在率定期及验证期内均具有较高的精度,能有效地应用于丹江口入库径流模拟研究;(2)由HUP处理器生成的倾向值结果(Q50值)精度显著高于SWAT模型结果,说明HUP模型可进一步提升径流模拟结果精度;(3)HUP模型结果对应的90%置信区间在率定期及验证期均能覆盖了大多数实测点据,且区间带宽较窄,说明本次不确定性分析的结果是合理可靠的。

In this paper,SWAT and HUP models were coupled to simulate the monthly runoff series of Danjiangkou Reservoir in the Han River Basin,and the uncertainty analysis was carried out based on deterministic simulation results.The results show that,(1)performance indices for both calibration and validation periods suggest that the SWAT model has a strong and reliable ability to simulate the monthly runoff series of Danjiangkou Reservoir;(2)The preferred values(Q50 values)generated by the HUP mod-el exhibits smaller error than deterministic simulation results generated by the SWAT model,which means that the HUP model could further improve the accuracy of simulation results;(3)The 90%confidence intervals of the monthly runoff generated by the posterior distribution cover most of the observed points for both calibration and validation periods,of which the relatively narrow in-tervals indicate that results of uncertainty analysis for this study are reasonable and reliable.