基于历法的冬季输水气象特征指标相关性研究

Correlation study of meteorological characteristic indices of winter water conveyance based on different calendars

气象是长距离输水渠道冬季安全运行的重要影响因素,预测影响冰情产生和发展的冬季输水气象特征指标是实现渠道冬季安全高效输水的一个重点。通过探索中国传统历法在辐射、气温分析中的作用,以南水北调中线北段沿线邢台站、保定站和北京站为研究对象,对比不同历法下入冬前气温与冬季输水气象特征指标间相关性的优劣,并利用LSTM预测模型对公历、干支历和阴历3种坐标系下冬季输水气象特征指标进行预测,来研究不同历法对冬季输水气象特征指标分析和预测的影响。结果表明:阴历坐标系下入冬前气温与冬季输水气象特征指标相关性更强;采用阴历在构建气象、冰情预测模型的过程中,较公历、干支历具有显著的优越性,可显著提高预测模型的准确性。

Meteorology is an important factor that affects the safe operation of long-distance water conveyance channels,the prediction of the meteorological characteristic indices that affects the ice generation and development is critical for safe and efficient water conveyance in winter.To explore the traditional Chinese calendar’s role in the analysis of radiation and temperature,taking Xingtai,Baoding and Beijing stations in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project as research objects,this study compares the correlation between the pre-winter temperature and the characteristic indices under different calendars.Then the LSTM model is used to predict the characteristic indices under three different systems:the Gregorian calendar,the Sexagenary cycle calendar and the lunar calendar,so as to examine their influences on the analysis and prediction of the characteristic indices.The results show that the correlation between pre-winter temperature and characteristic indices is stronger in lunar calendar system,and the meteorology and ice prediction model has better accuracy and superiority in the lunar calendar than in the Gregorian and the Sexagenary cycle calendar.