“绿水青山就是金山银山”实践创新基地碳汇量核算及碳排放影响因素研究:以浙江省宁海县为例

Calculation of Carbon Sink and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emission in the“Lucid Waters and Lush Mountains Are Invaluable Assets”Practice and Innovation Bases:The Case Study of Ninghai County

如何科学评估“绿水青山就是金山银山”(以下简称“两山”)实践创新基地碳源碳汇的变化趋势、时空分布、影响因子,对指导新时期生态文明建设具有重要作用。以浙江省宁海县为例,基于IPCC碳排放清单,测度宁海县碳汇量与碳排放量,分析区域碳汇的空间分布规律,并基于方差分解分析探究宁海县碳排放的影响因素。结果表明,宁海县碳汇量呈现逐年增加的趋势,2003-2018年从43.91万上升至49.40万t,其中,森林碳汇量占比为88.21%~91.12%;碳源量呈现平稳-急剧上升-波动下降-保持稳定的变化趋势,由2003年的154.17万变化至2018年的508.87万t。从碳汇量的空间分布来看,宁海县县域碳汇大致呈现西部>东南部>北部>中部的西高东低格局;宁海县碳排放可被社会因素、经济因素和“两山”建设驱动因素共同解释,3个因素对碳排放的共有解释度为60.86%,各因子的解释度表现为经济因素>“两山”建设驱动因素>社会因素。该研究为国家“两山”实践创新基地的碳源碳汇量核算提供了新思路,可为下一步政策制定和县域绿色发展提供参考。

Scientifically evaluate the changing trend,temporal and spatial distributions and influencing factors of carbon(C)sinks in the“Lucid Waters and Lush Mountains are Invaluable Assets”practice and innovation bases plays an important role in guiding the construction of ecological civilization in the new era.Taking Ninghai County in Zhejiang Province as an example,this study measured C sinks and emissions in Ninghai County based on the IPCC C emission inventory,explored the spatial distribution of regional C sinks,and analyzed the influencing factors of C emissions in Ninghai County based on variance decomposition analysis.The results show that during the study period the C sink in Ninghai County showed a trend of increasing year by year,from 43.91×10^(4) t in 2003 to 49.40×10^(4) t in 2018,of which the forest C sink accounted for 88.21%-91.12%;the C source maintained stable during 2003 to 2006 and then increased sharply from 2007 to 2011,followed by a post-volatility decline and finally a stable trend,changing from 154.17×10^(4) t in 2003 to 508.87×10^(4) t in 2018.From the perspective of the spatial distribution of C sinks,the county-level C sinks in Ninghai County roughly showed a pattern of“west high and east low”:“west>southeast>north>central”;C emissions in Ninghai County could be jointly explained by social factors,economic factors and“Lucid Waters and Lush Mountains are Invaluable Assets”construction driving factors,and the total explanation degree of these three factors was 60.86%,of which economic factors>“Lucid Waters and Lush Mountains are Invaluable Assets”construction driving factors>social factors.This research provides new ideas for the accounting of C sources and C sinks in the national“Lucid Waters and Lush Mountains are Invaluable Assets”practice and innovation bases,as well as provides a reference for the future policy formulation and green development for the county.