西部资源型地区产业发展与溢出效应:一个时空双维度研究

Industrial Development and Spillover Effects in Western Resource-based Regions:A Study Based on the Two Dimensions of Time and Space

资源型地区是西部工业经济的有效依托,也是西部大开发战略实施要地。采用马尔科夫链模型和产业结构高级化指数,基于时空双维度,探究2008-2019年中国西部资源型地区产业发展进程;通过建立空间杜宾模型,分析地区产业发展空间溢出效应,并运用回归模型偏微分方法对溢出效应进行分解。结果显示:研究期间西部资源型地区产业综合发展水平呈缓慢提升态势,且稳定性偏弱;地区产业发展水平空间差距逐步扩大,产业高级化水平非均衡性特征显著;地区产业发展空间溢出效应显著,生产要素投入与产业结构优化对相邻地区产业发展存在差异性影响。为促进西部资源型地区经济高质量发展,提出应完善空间治理、发挥各地区比较优势、形成优势互补、促进各类要素合理流动和高效聚集,增强创新发展动力等建议。

The west resource-based regions provide the solid foundation for the industrial economy in Western China,and are also the key areas for the implementation of the Western Development Strategy.With the advantage of natural re-sources,these resource-based regions have made a substantial contribution to regional and national economic growth in the early stage of reform and opening up.However,as China's economy has entered a period of high-quality development,these resource-based areas have gradually become a bottleneck of national economic development.Driven by promotive pol-icies,the industrial and economic status quo of western resource-based regions has been improved,but there are still wide-spread problems such as the disparity of individual development ability,the lack of endogenous development motivation,the imbalance of spatial distribution and the low economic efficiency,which have attracted widespread attention.Many re-searchers have focused on investigating regional economic and industrial development from the perspective of time and space,ignoring the spatial correlation between regions due to differences in resource endowments,flow of generating fac-tors,and changes in industrial structure in the process of industrial development in resource-based regions.Meanwhile,there is a lack of comprehensive analysis on the temporal and spatial evolution and spillover effects of industrial develop-ment in resource-based regions.Therefore,with the implementation of the Western Development Strategy,this article an-alyzes the industrial development characteristics,layout and evolution process of the western resource-based regions from the time and space dimensions.The marginal productive capacity of production factors in the western resource-based re-gions is measured as a whole,and the spillover effect of each influencing factor is evaluated by the partial differential method of the regression model.The discussion on the difference and spillover effect of industrial development in western resource-based regions is significant for enhancing the upgrading of industrial structure,optimization of regional strategic layout and high-quality economic development in this region.According to the National Sustainable Development Plan for Resource-Based Cities(2013-2020),this article selects 37 prefecture-level western resource-based cities as research samples.First,the Markov chain analysis method is employed to explore the time series characteristics of industrial development levels in resource-based regions in western China from 2008 to 2019.Then,it uses the advanced index of industrial structure to represent the advanced level of industrial structure in western resource-based regions and analyze the evolution characteristics of industrial structure level.Finally,a spatial Durbin model is constructed to explore the spatial spillover effect of industrial development in western resource-based re-gions with the panel data from 2008 to 2019 of these regions,and the regression model partial differential method are con-ducted to decompose the total spillover effect and further study the differences in the contribution of factors of production to industrial development.It's found that firstly,the overall stability of industrial development in the western resource-based regions is weak,and the types of transfer between different levels are diversified.There are both upward and downward transfer,and the probability of upward transfer is slightly greater.Secondly,the advanced level of industrial structure in western resource-based areas shows a trend of gradual improvement,but the spatial imbalance is prominent.Thirdly,the spatial difference of industrial development in western resource-based regions is gradually expanding.Regions with higher industrial develop-ment level are more likely to realize hierarchical transition due to their more mature industrial system,while most re-source-based regions are constrained by resources and environment,and their industrial development level is generally backward or stagnant.Finally,the spatial spillover effect of regional industrial development is significant,and the input of production factors and optimization of industrial structure have different effects on the industrial development of neighbor-ing regions.Although the industrial development in the western resource-based regions is gradually improving,it is difficult to get out of the current predicament only by means of marketization,and the government's macro-control is indispensable.It is a feasible development path to improve spatial governance,give full play to the comparative advantages of various regions to form complementary advantages,promote efficient aggregation of various elements,optimize resource allocation by al-locating limited resources to support the industry and enhance the impetus for innovation and development under the lead-ership of the government.This article provides theoretical and practical suggestions for the reconstruction of industry value chain and the coordinated development of regional economy and ecology in western resource-based regions,the fulfillment of new requirements of western development and the construction of new patterns of western development.