美丽中国背景下云南省农业活动甲烷排放量计算与情景预测分析

Calculation and scenario projection of CH4 emission from agricultural activities in Yunnan province

运用CH_(4)MOD模型和排放因子法对云南省农业活动CH_(4)排放量进行计算分析,并运用情景分析法对云南省农业活动CH_(4)排放量进行预测.研究结果表明:1)云南省2010—2019年农业源CH_(4)排放总量变化趋势为先波动上升再迅速减少最后趋于平稳,其中动物肠道发酵排放量贡献最大;2)云南省2010—2019年农业源CH_(4)单位农业增加值排放强度呈下降趋势,单位农地面积排放强度为波动状态;3)云南省2020—2029年不同情景下农业活动CH_(4)排放量预测均为上升趋势.由此从水稻种植和畜禽养殖两方面提出减排措施,以期实现“双碳”目标和美丽中国建设.

This paper used CH_(4)MOD model and emission factor method to calculate and analyze the CH_(4) emission from agricultural activities in Yunnan province,and used scenario analysis to project the agricultural CH_(4) emission in Yunnan province.The results showed that the total agricultural CH_(4) emission in Yunnan province rose in fluctua⁃tion,followed by a sharp decrease,and then remained stable from 2010 to 2019,in which the emission from animal intestinal fermentation contributed the most.From 2010 to 2019,the agricultural emission intensity of CH_(4) per unit agricultural added value in Yunnan province showed a downward trend,while the agricultural emission intensity per unit agricultural land area was fluctuating.The CH_(4) emission from agricultural activities in Yunnan province was pro⁃jected to be in upward trends under three scenarios from 2020 to 2029.Therefore,CH_(4) emission reduction measures should be taken in rice cultivation,livestock and poultry breeding in order to achieve the goal of“double carbon”and build a beautiful China.