“一带一路”对沿边地区空间演化的政策效应研究

Research on the Policy Effect of“the Belt and Road Initiative”on the Spatial Evolution of Border Areas

文章基于“中心—外围”模型,构建综合评价指标体系,利用耦合协调度指数测量“一带一路”倡议实施前后(2009—2019年)我国9个沿边省份空间格局演变情况。研究发现:除西藏外,“一带一路”倡议对8个省份的政策效应是显而易见的,对东北三省影响最为强烈,广西、内蒙古和新疆受到的政策效应相对较小,甘肃、云南的政策效应还有待于进一步观察;沿边地区空间演化总体情况符合钟状曲线的演变规律;各地区两个维度的开放水平、面临的国际经济环境及各自的制度环境是造成政策效应异质性的主要原因。据此,提出相关政策建议。

Based on the“center-periphery”model,this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system,and measures the spatial pattern evolution of 9 border provinces in China before and after the implementation of“the Belt and Road initiative”(2009-2019)by using the coupling coordination index.This study finds that the policy effect of“the Belt and Road initiative”on 8 provinces is obvious except Tibet,and it has the strongest impact on the three northeastern provinces.The policy effect on Guangxi,Inner Mongolia,and Xinjiang is relatively small,and the policy effect on Gansu and Yunnan needs further observation;the overall spatial evolution of the border areas conforms to the evolution law of the bell curve;the openness of each region in two dimensions,the international economic environment,and their respective institutional environment are the main reasons for the heterogeneity of policy effect.Based on this,relevant policy suggestions are put forward.