基于AHP-模糊评价的炼化企业生产安全事故应急能力评估方法体系

The Emergency Capability Evaluation Method System for Production Safety Accident of Refining and Chemical Enterprises Based on AHP-fuzzy Evaluation

为实现炼化企业生产安全事故应急能力的科学合理评估,将应急能力涉及的所有因素凝练划分为6个分项能力,给出了相应的评估要素,构建了炼化企业应急能力评估层次分析模型,通过数值求解,确定了各级指标的权重分布;在此基础上,基于模糊综合评价理论,建立了应急能力评估模型,将专家评估结果中模糊性的程度语言概念进行量化处理,实现了多因素多层次的评估问题从定性研判向定量分析的转换;同时提出了与评估模型相配套的专家遴选、评估方案和问题清单化梳理方法,形成了完善的炼化企业生产安全事故应急能力评估方法体系。以三家炼化企业作为试点企业,对应急能力模糊综合评价向量和评估分值进行求解确定,分析归纳存在的突出问题,并进行应急能力评价。研究成果可以为提升和完善应急管理水平提供一定的理论和实践依据。

In order to realize the scientific and reasonable evaluation of the emergency capability for production safety accident in the refining and chemical enterprises.All the factors involved in the emergency capability were condensed and divided into six sub-capabilities,and the corresponding evaluation elements were given.To evaluate the emergency capability for refining and chemical enterprises,the analytic hierarchy process model was established,and the weight distribution of each index was determined through numerical solution.On this basis,according to the Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory,the emergency capability evaluation model was established,which quantified the fuzzy degree language in the expert evaluation results,and transformed the multi-factor and multi-level evaluation from the qualitative judgment to the quantitative analysis.Furthermore,matched with the evaluation model,the methods of expert selection,evaluation scheme and sorting out problems list were put forward.In this way,the complete evaluation method system of emergency capability was formed.Taking three refining and chemical enterprises as the pilot enterprises,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector and evaluation score of emergency capability was determined.The key problems were analyzed and summarized,and the emergency capability evaluation was conducted.The research could provide theoretical and practical basis for improving the level of emergency management.