RCEP达成后区域各国劳动力成本差异对FDI的影响

An analysis on impact of labor costs difference of regional countries on FDI after reaching RCEP

RCEP经过近八年谈判于2020年正式签署,这一重大历史事件必将对区域内资本流动产生重大影响。采用新经济地理学研究方法构建包含三经济体的贸易与资本收益模型,通过分析RCEP达成后各国企业资本收益变化,得到造成人力资本差异原因之一的劳动力成本对资本流动的影响。结论指出:RCEP达成后,对于市场竞争激烈、工资水平较低的行业,资本会减少向东盟和中国的流动,可能会增加向日韩澳新等发达国家的流入;对于技术门槛高、员工工资较高的行业,资本流向市场规模较大且工资水平较低国家的强度会略有减弱,流向市场规模小且工资水平高国家的强度会有所增加。据此对我国如何更好地应对RCEP达成带来的FDI流动变化、优化投资结构提出政策建议。

After eight years of negotiation,RCEP was officially signed in 2020.The major historical event will have a significant impact on the capital flow within the RCEP.The new economic geography research method is adopted to construct a trade and capital return model covering three economies.The impact of labor costs-one of the causes of the difference of human capital-on capital flows is obtained by analyzing the changes of capital gains of enterprises in each economy after the RCEP is reached.It concludes as follows:Reaching RCEP will reduce the inflow of capital to ASEAN and China in some industries with fierce market competition and low wages but may increase the inflows to developed countries such as Japan,Korea,Australia and New Zealand.As for industries with higher technical threshold and higher wages,the inflow of capital to countries with large-scale market and low wages will be slightly weakened,while the inflow of capital to countries with small-scale market and high wages will be increased.According to it,policy suggestions are proposed on how to better deal with the changes of FDI inflow and to optimize the investment structure.