西藏边境贸易对边民增收的影响及其效应分析——基于pvar模型和中介模型的实证检验

An Analysis of the Effect of Border Trade on the Border Residents'Income in Tibet-An empirical test based on PVAR Model and Mediating Model

使用西藏5个边境陆路口岸及其载体县2010-2019年的面板数据,通过建立面板向量自回归模型(PVAR模型)实证分析了西藏边境贸易对边民增收的作用机制,同时建立中介效应模型,从基础设施建设和产业结构变动两个视角分析了西藏边境贸易对边民增收的内在机理。研究结论表明:西藏边境贸易对边民增收具有明显的促进作用;西藏边境贸易通过基础设施建设关联效应和产业结构效应正向影响边民增收。并在此基础上提出:落实国家对边境地区的优惠政策,加大对边境地区基础设施建设力度,创新边贸形式、实现多产业融合等对策建议。

Based on the panel data of five land border ports and the counties where the ports are located from 2010 to 2019,an empirical analysis has been done on the effect mechanism of Tibet's border trade on the increase of border residents'income by building the PVAR model and mediating effect model.From the perspective of infra⁃structure construction and industrial structure change,it is analyzed that the internal mechanism of Tibet's bor⁃der trade and its border residents'income.The results show that the border trade has a significant promotion ef⁃fect on increasing the income of border residents in Tibet,and the border trade positively affects the increase of border residents'income through the correlation effect of infrastructure construction and industrial structure ef⁃fect.On this basis,some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward,such as implementing preferential pol⁃icies for border areas,intensifying infrastructure construction in border areas,innovating border trade forms and realizing multi-industry integration.