水面舰船坞修项目进度风险仿真

Schedule Risk Simulation of Surface Ship Dock Repair Project

为解决水面舰船维修过程中因风险因素导致的进度延期等问题,在舰船坞修项目工序分解的基础上,通过故障模式与影响分析(FMEA)方法建立各维修进程风险识别表;运用多智能体系统对舰船坞修项目进行仿真建模,分别建立“工序单元”和“风险单元”两种智能体,构建基于多智能体的项目进度风险评估模型;通过仿真实验,得到风险因素敏感度排序,提出一种对风险因素进行差异化的控制手段。对风险因素进行控制后,项目按时完工率提升到91%左右,验证了仿真模型和风险控制手段的可靠性。

In order to solve the problems of schedule delay caused by risk factors in the process of surface ship maintenance,this paper first establishes risk identification table of each maintenance process based on the breakdown of shipyard repair project procedure,and then simulates the shipyard repair project by using multi-agent system,and establishes"procedure unit"and"working unit"respectively which constructs a project schedule risk assessment model based on multi-agent.Finally,through the simulation results,the sensitivity ranking of risk factors is obtained,and a risk control method can be used for reference is proposed.The reliability of the simulation model is verified by the comparative analysis before and after the control.