社会保障模式与改革:一个基于“不可能三角”理论的分析

Social Security Models and Reforms:An Analysis based on the "Impossible Triangle" Theory

本文提出了一个异质性劳动力市场中政府面临的“不可能三角”困境理论,即“收入公平”“经济效率”“充分就业”三个目标难以同时实现。“不可能三角”困境影响了各国的社会保障模式的选择:市场模式侧重“经济效率”和“充分就业”,但导致收入差距较大;福利国家模式侧重“收入公平”和“经济效率”,但存在较大失业缺口;国家保障模式选择了“收入公平”和“充分就业”,而牺牲了一定的经济效率。本文认为我国则采用了根据社会主要矛盾的判断动态调整社会保障模式的策略。破解“不可能三角”需要保持社会保障体系核心功能不动摇,推动教育医疗等基本公共服务均等化,在对本国国情的分析基础上,选择恰当的具体策略启动“第四维度”,从而解决当前三个目标之间的冲突。

This paper proposes a theory of the "impossible triangle" dilemma faced by governments in the heterogeneous labor market, i.e. the three goals of "income equality", "economic efficiency" and "full employment" cannot be simultaneously achieved. We believe the "impossible triangle" dilemma affects the choices of social security models in various countries: the "market-driven model" prioritizes "economic efficiency" and "full employment", while leaving a large income gap;the "welfare state model" prioritizes "income equality " and "economic e ffi ciency", while allowing a large unemployment gap;the "national security model" prioritizes "income equality " and "full employment" at the expense of some "economic e ffi ciency". We find that, China has adopted a strategy that dynamically adjusts the social security model according to the principal challenge facing society. This paper argues that to break the "impossible triangle", we need to maintain the core functions of the social security system, promote the equalization of basic public services such as education and health care, and select appropriate specifi c strategies to launch the "fourth dimension" on the basis of the analysis of China’s conditions, so as to resolve the confl icts among the current three goals.